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Forex Signals Brief June 6: Where Is the AUD After the RBA Meeting?

Posted Tuesday, June 6, 2023 by
Skerdian Meta • 3 min read

Yesterday’s Market Wrap

Yesterday started with the Caixin Services PMI which showed that the activity in this sector expanded considerably last month. Swiss CPI consumer inflation showed a 0.3% increase in May after falling flat in April. European services PMI on the other hand was revised lower in the last reading, as was the US ISM services number, which fell close to stagnation.

As a result, the odds for the FED to pause and skip rate hikes in this month’s meeting increased, sending the USD lower, while Gold surged around $25 higher. Crude Oil opened with a bullish gap after the weekend as Saudi Arabia announced a production cut on itself during the weekend OPEC meeting and raised the price cap for Asian exports by $3. But Russia stepped in to save the day for India and other Asian nations by increasing its exports and Oil reversed back down, closing the gap.

Today’s Market Expectations

Today the economic calendar started with the Average Cash Earnings from Japan, which increased from the previous 1.3% on an annualized basis. The highlight of the day though was the Reserve Bank of Australia policy meeting, which was to keep the cash rate unchanged at 3.85%. The German Factory Orders are expected to have turned positive in May, while the UK Construction PMI is expected to slow. In the US session, the Canadian Ivey PMI is expected to show further improvement.

Forex Signals Update

Yesterday started slow with the USD on a slight uptrend, as the sentiment was softly negative, apart from crude Oil which saw a surge higher in early Asian trading. Although later we saw a reversal and the USD fell lower as ISM services headed toward construction.

 GOLD Bounces Off the 100 SMA Again

Gold has experienced a decline for approximately a month, failing to surpass its previous all-time high of $2,075. During this decline, the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) has acted as a support level, preventing further downward movement. The price of XAU/USD (gold) rebounded from the 100 SMA and was testing the 50-day SMA (yellow) towards the end of last week. However, a bearish reversal occurred on Friday as USD buyers returned, but the 100 SMA held as support agina yesterday.

XAU/USD – Daily chart H4

EUR/USD Finds Resistance at the 50 SMA

EUR/USD shifted to a bearish trend early last month as buyers of the USD began to emerge. This led the pair to reach lows around 1.06 yesterday. The 20-period Simple Moving Average (gray) and the 50 SMA (yellow) have been acting as resistance levels at the top of the chart. Traders have been selling retracements higher at these levels. On Thursday last week, we saw a bullish reversal which pushed this pair above the 50 SMA but the 100 SMA (green) stopped the climb and the downtrend resumed once again.

 EUR/USD – 240 minute chart

Cryptocurrency Update

BITCOIN Falls Below the 100 SMA

cryptocurrencies have generally experienced a bullish trend since the beginning of the year. However, since late April, there has been a retracement lower. During this period, the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the daily chart has acted as a support level, causing the price to bounce above the 50-period SMA (yellow). However, the price was unable to sustain that level and has since reversed downward, moving toward the 100-period SMA once again. The “buy” signal for Bitcoin at the 100-period SMA still remains open though.

BTC/USD – Daily chart

ETHEREUM Testing the 100 SMA 

In recent weeks, the buying pressure for Ethereum has slowed down, and we have witnessed a retreat in its price over the last few days. However, the correction appears complete as the 100 SMA (green) held as support for ETH/USD and buyers pushed the price above the 50 SMA as well. Now it seems that this moving average has turned into support.

ETH/USD – Daily chart
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