Unemployment Claims Stick Closer to 200K, Confirming Strong Jobs Market Once Again
The labour market has been consistent despite the headwinds in other sectors due to higher interest rates and surging yields. Although the USD has been retreating since last Thursday despite a great Non- Farm Employment report last Friday. US bond yields have been retreating from record levels during this period, but yesterday the CPI consumer inflation remained upbeat, exceeding expectations, which helped the USD and bond yields move higher again.
The unemployment claims were also decent, remaining low, as they stick closer to the 200k mark. The Treasury market, where 10-year rates have increased to 4.65% from 4.55% before the data, validates the bullish move in the USD. Following the statistics, S&P 500 futures are almost flat, wiping off a 20-point gain. A strong PPI news yesterday caused the market to swiftly decline, but the dollar’s strength today is still there.
The reversal in commodity dollars and in EUR/USD put an end to the common currency’s six-day winning run. Regarding the future, I’ll be keeping a close eye on bonds. The US Treasury auctioned 10-year notes yesterday at an unexpectedly high yield, which may be a warning that the recent high isn’t going to be the highest point.
US Initial Jobless Claims and Continuing Claims for the Current Week
Initial jobless claims and continuing claims
- Initial jobs claims 209K versus 210K estimate
- Prior week jobless claims 207K revised to 209K
- Initial jobless claims 209K vs 210K estimate
- The 4-week moving average initial jobless claims 206.25K vs. 208.75k last week revised to 209.25K
- Continuing claims 1.702xM vs 1.680M estimate.
- Prior week continuing claims 1.664M revised to 1.672M
- The 4-week MA of Continuing claims is at 1.674M vs last week’s 1.6695M
- The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending September 30 were in California (+1,202), Texas (+453), Michigan (+409), Virginia (+331), and Indiana (+306),
- The largest decreases were in Ohio (-1,528), Alabama (-794), Illinois (-492), Missouri (-470), and Colorado (-456).
Initial jobless claims continue to skim on the 200 K level. Continuing claims did move back above the 1.7M level a small increase indicative of perhaps a little more layoffs. Employment is still healthy overall.
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