In the last two days, crude oil has been extremely volatile. WTI crude fell in the European session yesterday before rebounding later in the US session. Oil is currently trading close to $78, up $3 from its low just below $75. The expected OPEC+ meeting this week has been in the spotlight after being postponed from last week. Crude stumbled on news that it would be postponed again, but the market began to change its tune when it was revealed that the issue is still African production.

Since this is an online conference, there hasn’t been much leakage from the normally leaky OPEC sources. Despite speculations that the OPEC+ summit will take place tomorrow, concerns regarding the group remain. It appears that some sort of arrangement has been struck. Anyway, the US EIA inventories were released and showed a buildup instead of a drawdown, which was a bit of a surprise after yesterday’s private API numbers showed a decline.

Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories

• Crude +1609K vs -933K expected
• Crude oil inventories +1609K versus -933K expected
• Gasoline +1764K vs +229K expected
• Distillates +5127K vs -394K expected

Yesterday’s Reported API Private Inventories 

• Crude Oil -817K
• Gasoline -898K
• Distillates +2806K

The large increase in distillates is a pleasant surprise, especially given the dangerously low diesel inventories. These figures are unfavorable for oil, which was already falling into the statistics. If OPEC hasn’t already made up its mind, this should be a warning to them that the crude market isn’t particularly tight. When the OPEC news is released tomorrow, expect a major move.

WTI Crude Oil Live Chart