Forex Signals Brief January 9: Australian Retail Sales Highlight the Day

Skerdian Meta•Tuesday, January 9, 2024•3 min read

Yesterday risk sentiment was primarily negative following another terrible trading day in China, however it was mostly calm during th4e first half of the day. However, it was Oil that sparked volatility, when Saudi Arabia announced a price decrease on its grades. This resulted in a bearish reversal in crude oil, sending WTI close to $70.

This improved risk sentiment regarding inflation in the US session, causing US bond yields to turn lower, drsgging the USD down. Compounding this was a release from the FED on inflation expectations. That survey revealed a significant decline in 1,3 and5 year inflation, which the FED should take comfort in.

The Euro took advantage of the US dollar weakness, reaching 1.0980 before retreating to 1.0950, while Gold ended up lower at the end of the day, after an intitial dive and a billish reversal later, before falling again in late US trading. XAU attempted to rise beyond $2,040 but was unable to sustain the momentum.

Today’s Market Expectations

Today the economic data is light, with the November retail sales from Australia expected to be the highlight of the day. Retail sales have been increasing although they turned negative in october, postive a 0.2% decline, However, November is expected to show a piositive reversal and a 1.2% growth.

The Tokyo CPI is regarded as a leading indicator of the National inflation in Japan. The Tokyo Core CPI YoY is predicted to rise 2.1% from 2.3% previously. The headline inflation rate has been slowly declining due to energy deflation, but the Core-Core measure, which excludes food and energy prices, has been rising, with the rate now at 2.7%, considerably above the Bank of Japan’s 2% objective.

Yesterday markets continued to shoiw uncertyainty after Friday’s volatile price action following the mixed employment and ISM services numbers from the US. Yesterday the USD continued higher in the Asian and European sessions amd we nooked profit on two forex signals since we were long on the USD, but then markets reversed and the USD declined in the US session so we got cought on the wrong side and ended up with two winning and tow losing signals in total

Gold Testing the 50 SMA

Between October until the end of December, gold purchasers fought hard, driving the price above all-time highs and breaking new records. However, the positive surge was halted when the price reached $2,100. The rebound halted due to uncertainty in the global economy and central bank policy trajectory, which aided the USD at the start of the new year.however the retreat in Gold has stalled at moving averages so let’s see if we will see a rebound off the 50 SMA (yellow).

XAU/USD – Daily chart

USD/CHF Buyers Can’t break Above the 20 Daily SMA

USD/CHF began to fall in early October as tensions in the Middle East rose and safe havens gained traction, and sellers took control. The USD then began to fall as the Fed became more dovish, signaling rate reduction in 2024, putting additional pressure on this pair, leading it to 0.8330s by the end of 2023, following the most recent FOMC meeting. But the first week of 2023 has been bullish for the USD and this pair has climbed higher, but buyers are facing the 20 SMA (gray) on the daily chart now which acted as a resistance on Friday.

USD/CHF – Daily chart

Cryptocurrency Update

Bitcoin Surges Above $47,000?

Last year, the cryptocurrency market prospered and became a safe refuge for international assets. Early last year, comments that the SEC would approve a Bitcoin EFT boosted sentiment even further, and cryptocurrencies continued to surge until the end of the year. However, on Wednesday, BTC fell to $40,000 lows following comments that the SEC might refuse the ETF, but this proved to be a rumour, and the slide was halted at the 50 daily SMA (yellow). Eventually, we saw a reversal and a return above $44,000 where this pair continues to trade.

BTC/USD – Daily Chart

Ethereum Benefiting From the Bitcoin ETF

This year, ETH/USD has made new highs, indicating that the trend has been positive all year, with moving averages pushing the lows higher. Buyers reappeared this week after a brief retreat, but they were unable to break through last week’s high of $2,500. The price fell to $2,127 on Wednesday, but it reversed back up, with the 50 SMA (yellow) acting as support on the daily chart and the price climbed above $2,300.

Ethereum – Daily Chart

ETH Buy Signal
Entry Price: $1,947.38
Stop Loss: $1,490
Take Profit: $2,500

Check out our free forex signals

Follow the top economic events on FX Leaders economic calendar

Trade better, discover more Forex Trading Strategies

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

Ethereum Faces Potential 50% Drop as Whales Offload Millions in ETH

22 hours ago

Gold Surges Past $3,000: Can It Hold or Is a Pullback Coming?

1 day ago

Ethereum Price Struggles Below $2,000 as Supply Hits Decade-Low

1 day ago

Comments

0 0 votes

Article Rating

0 Comments

Oldest

Newest Most Voted

Inline Feedbacks

View all comments

Forex Signals Brief January 9: Australian Retail Sales Highlight the Day