Forex Signals Brief January 17: USD Ready for Another Jump If Retail Sales Come Strong
Yesterday risk assets continued to slip lower as the sentiment remained negative, while the USD was pushing higher. In the European session, the GBP took a dive after the release of the UK employment figures for November, which leaned on the soft side. Eventually, Waller highlighted the day with some remarks which sent the USD higher.
Yesterday the UK jobs data showed that the unemployment rate remained constant at 4.2% and the unemployment claims declined, which is positive. However, the Average Earnings Index 3m/y which was expected to fall by 4 points, from 7.2% to 6.8% exceeded expectations and fell to 6.6%. The Bank of England is looking at wages and at inflation numbers.
In the afternoon, the CPI inflation report from Canada came above expectations, giving the CAD a boost. Although, it couldn’t sustain the momentum, and USD/CAD reversed higher in favour of the USD after some less-dovish comments from FED’s Waller. The market took his comments as hawkish and the USD went pushed higher again, ending another day in gain.
Today’s Market Expectations
The day starts with an important round of economic data from Chin, which usually has an impact on commodity dollars. The GDP QoY is expected to increase from 4.9% to 5.3%, while the Industrial Production YoY is expected to jump from 6.6% to 6.8%. However, retail sales figures are expected to show a decline from 10.1% to 8.1%.
UK CPI inflation will be released next and it is predicted to tick down to 3.8% in December, up from 3.9%, while the Core CPI YoY is predicted to move down to 4.9% vs. 5.1% before. The monthly CPI is expected to increase by 0.2%, up from -0.2% in November. The numbers will not have much influence on next month’s BoE meeting, but it will undoubtedly alter market pricing for BOE rate cuts.
The US Retail Sales will be the highlight of the day and they will probably send the USD higher if they are strong. The monthly number is predicted to tick higher to 0.4% in December from 0.3% in November, while core sales which exclude autos are expected to remain unchanged at 0.2%, up from 0.2%.
BTC/USD – Daily Chart
Ethereum Bouncing Off the 50 SMA
ETH/USD continues to rise, proving that the trend has been positive all year, with moving averages pushing lows higher. After a little respite, buyers returned this week, but they were unable to shatter the previous week’s high of $2,500. On Wednesday, the price sank to $2,127, but then recovered, with the 50 SMA (yellow) acting as support on the H4 chart, and it rocketed beyond $2,500 yesterday.
Ethereum – Daily Chart
- ETH Buy Signal
- Entry Price: $1,947.38
- Stop Loss: $1,490
- Take Profit: $2,500
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