AUD/USD Continues Toward 0.60 After the Disappointing Employment Report

AUD/USD used to be quite bullish in Q4 of 2023, but it made a reversal at the end of December and it has been falling for the past...

Written by: Skerdian Meta • Thursday, January 18, 2024 • 1 min read

• Last updated: Thursday, January 18, 2024

AUD/USD used to be quite bullish in Q4 of 2023, but it made a reversal at the end of December and it has been falling for the past three weeks, having been bullish when it reversed higher in November, to the resistance zone below 0.69. This pair has dropped roughly 300 pips since the top, and after stalling for a few days late last week, the downturn resumed yesterday.

AUD/USD Daily Chart – The 200 SMA Has Been Broken

The decline is picking up momentumMoving averages have been acting as support, but they have been broken one after the other this month, as the price keeps sliding lower. AUD/USD fell below the 20 daily SMA (gray) in the first week of January, which turned into resistance right away. Last week the 50 SMA (yellow) was holding as support on the daily chart and the price was confined between these two moving averages.

On Monday this week, the decline resumed again and sellers finally broke below this moving average, sending the price 180 pips lower in the last three days. Yesterday, the higher retail sales figures gave the USD another push higher, and AUD/USD broke below the 200 SMA (purple).

Today we had the employment report from Australia, with the unemployment rate expected to remain unchanged at 3.9% in December. The jobs numbers leaned on the soft side again, so we have turned bearish on AUD/USD and will try to sell retraces higher on smaller time-frame charts.

December Employment Report from Australia

December Employment -65.1K vs +17.6K expected
Unemployment rate 3.9% vs 3.9% expected
Participation rate 66.7% vs 67.1% expected
Previous participation rate was 67.2%
Part-time jobs +41.5K

AUD/USD Live Chart

AUD/USD

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Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.