Bitcoin Breaks Past $43,000: Key Events and Technical Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) is enjoying some positive price action early on Tuesday, crossing the $43,000 level as the selling pressure due to GBTC outflows weakens. While the price action might seem cautious, several key events are impacting the near-term outlook for traders to keep an eye on:

1. BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Surge: The BlackRock Physically Settled Bitcoin ETF (BITC) continues to see strong inflows, surpassing the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) in daily volume for the first time yesterday, touching $155 million against GBTC’s $113 million. This shift suggests growing institutional interest in directly holding Bitcoin, potentially providing a long-term tailwind for prices.

2. GBTC Outflows: However, persistent selling pressure from the GBTC could act as a headwind. Analysts estimate total outflows reaching around $4.39 billion over the past few weeks, indicating potential profit-taking from early investors.

3. Regulatory Uncertainty: Looming regulations in the US and elsewhere continue to cast a shadow of uncertainty. The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently delayed a decision on Grayscale’s spot Ethereum ETF application, adding to the wait-and-see sentiment.

4. Bitcoin Halving Anticipation: With the next Bitcoin halving estimated to occur in the spring of 2024, some analysts remain bullish, predicting a price surge due to decreased supply. However, this factor hasn’t yet translated into significant buying pressure.

BTC/USD Technical Analysis

BTC/USD is currently trading above $43,000. A stronger uptrend from here could see momentum building towards $45,000, with the 50-day moving average providing potential support.

However, a breakdown below $38,000 could trigger a deeper retracement towards $35,000, where the 200-day moving average and long-term support lie.

Key indicators such as the RSI remain neutral near 50, suggesting indecisiveness among traders. The MACD is slightly positive but lacks momentum for a sustained breakout.

Bitcoin Trading Strategies for Today

• Bullish traders: Look for entries above $43,000 with stop-losses below $38,000. Target $45,000 and potentially $48,000 if momentum builds.
• Bearish traders: Consider shorting below $38,000 with stop-losses above $43,000. Target $35,000 and potentially $32,000 if selling pressure persists.

Overall, Bitcoin’s near-term direction remains uncertain, although it looks like the bearish pressure has dissipated to some extent.