EUR/USD Price Forecast: Awaits German CPI and Nagel’s Speech for Clues
Arslan Butt•Friday, February 9, 2024•2 min read
The EUR/USD price is confronting resistance near the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), with selling pressure mounting during the Asian session on Friday. Trading around the 1.0770 region, the pair has experienced a marginal decline of just over 0.05% for the day, pausing the recovery efforts from its near three-month low earlier in the week.
USD Gains on Fed’s Rate Stance
The U.S. Dollar’s strength is anchored by market consensus around the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) intention to sustain higher interest rates, reflecting the ongoing resilience of the U.S. economy.
Concurrently, the anticipation that the European Central Bank (ECB) may initiate interest rate reductions as early as the second quarter presents challenges for the Euro, applying downward pressure on the EUR/USD exchange rate.
However, the exact timing and extent of the Fed’s interest rate adjustments remain uncertain, restraining Dollar bulls from adopting a more aggressive stance. Furthermore, the current appetite for risk is capping any significant gains for the Dollar, traditionally sought after as a haven in uncertain times.
Anticipated Macroeconomic Indicators
Looking ahead, investors are gearing up for key economic releases:
- At 7:00, the German Final CPI month-over-month figures are anticipated to remain steady at 0.2%, providing insights into inflationary trends in the Eurozone’s largest economy.
- By 9:00, the focus will shift to Italy’s Industrial Production month-over-month data, expected at 0.8%, a significant rebound from the previous decline of -1.5%, offering a glimpse into the industrial health of another major European economy.
- At 10:30, remarks from the German Bundesbank President Nagel are scheduled, which market participants will scrutinize for cues on the central bank’s policy direction amid regional economic developments.
These upcoming data releases and central bank communications may offer fresh directional impetus for the EUR/USD pair, shaping near-term trading dynamics.
EUR/USD Price Forecast: Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair presents a subdued stance in the forex market, hovering around $1.07697, showing a slight change in the last 24-hour period. The pair finds itself under the pivot point marked by the green line at $1.07930, suggesting a tentative bearish bias.
Immediate resistance levels are established at $1.07830, $1.07930, and $1.08376, which could serve as ceilings restraining any bullish attempts.
On the downside, support appears firm at $1.07230 with additional levels at $1.06711 and $1.06136 potentially providing a safety net against further declines.

Technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), at 47.87, suggest that sellers are trying to gain control, while the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.07930 reinforces resistance.
The chart indicates a potential downward trend, with the EMA and RSI aligning to support a bearish outlook.
Given these technical observations, the overall trend for EUR/USD appears bearish below the $1.0788 level, with a possibility of descent towards the $1.07230 mark, and potentially lower if bearish momentum persists.
EUR/USD Live Chart
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Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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