Forex Signals Brief Feb 9: Canada Closing A Boring Week
Yesterday most markets remained slow again, although crosscurrents so some action. Crude Oil escalated the upside momentum, with continuous demand pushing prices up from below $74.00 to $76.50. The uncertainty in the Middle East, and signals of global tightness, aided the upward trend. In addition, the EIA’s statements of slower US supply growth drew market attention.
In Forex, surged to 149,50 after a technical break of 148.50, aided by dovish words from the Bank of Japan. On the other hand, the USD gained impetus during the European session from rising bond rates but found difficulty as the auction of 30-year Treasuries drew considerable demand. This led to a reversal in the USD later in the US session causing most major currencies to finish the day flat.
Today’s Market Expectations
The Canadian employment report is the main event today and will likely reveal 15K jobs gained last month compared to 0.1K in December, with the unemployment rate ticking higher to 5.9% from 5.8% before. The BoC is heavily focused on underlying inflation measures and wage growth, therefore Average Hourly Wages YoY will be an important sign to follow, with the previous publication seeing a surge to 5.7%, the highest since January 2021.
The US CPI seasonal factor changes are due on Friday and will include data from 2019 to 2023. According to Oxford Economics, the changes would be small, “but should show that inflation was on a better trajectory heading into this year than thought.” The consultant observes that, traditionally, these modifications have been minor, but there have been exceptions. The monetary policy implications of the CPI adjustments will be determined by their impact on the PCE deflator, the Fed’s target inflation measure. The BLS seasonal adjustment procedure uses the actual non-seasonally adjusted components of the CPI and then maps the prices used as source data for the PCE deflator. Powell has stressed the importance of US CPI adjustments, which will be the focus tomorrow. The Fed was caught off guard by last year’s positive adjustments, so expectations are high. Changes in service inflation will be closely monitored, using numerous considerations.
Yesterday, price movement in most forex pairs picked up, with the USD gaining momentum during the European session but then reversing the gains and ending the day unchanged in the late US session. Therefore we only opened three forex signals and closed the day with two winning trading signals and a losing one.
Gold Jumps to $2,044 to Flush Some Weak Stops Before Coming Back Down
Since the beginning of the year, gold has failed to establish a clear direction, oscillating between support over $2,000 and technical resistance around $2,060-70. However, buyers continue to seem stronger, driving the lows higher. We decided earlier this week to issue a sell GOLD signal on Monday, when the price fell below the 50 daily SMA (yellow). However, buyers returned above the support zone and drove the price back toward the resistance, indicating that the break was a fakeout.
XAU/USD – 240 minute chart
USD/JPY Approaches 150
USD/JPY surged in January as the Fed turned aggressive, while the BOJ (Bank of Japan) stayed neutral on monetary policy, expecting spring wage discussions. However, the USD/JPY price has been hovering around 147.50-148, with traders unsure whether to maintain the positive momentum towards 150 and, finally, the record high of 152.
USD/JPY – Daily chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Moves Above $44,000
Bitcoin is trading above $45,000 (BTC/USD) today, up 6% in the previous 24 hours and a long way from its all-time high of $68,789. Buyers have resumed control again and yesterday they finally pushed above the 50 daily SMA. Now the price is heading for $50,000 again, however, there’s still plenty of room.
BTC/USD – Daily Chart
Ethereum Reaches Another Milestone at $2,400
ETHEREUM has also fluctuated in price, falling from about $2,700 since the introduction of BTC ETFs, but the overall trend is positive because it has yet to reach lower lows. The price went below the 20 daily SMA (grey) yesterday, but it is still above the 50 SMA (yellow), which acts as the last support indication during deeper pullbacks like this one. We intend to create another long-term buy ETH signal near the 50 SMA, but we’ll see how the price movement plays out.
Ethereum – Daily Chart
- ETH Buy Signal
- Entry Price: $2,290
- Stop Loss: $2,590
- Take Profit: $1,750
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