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Market Swings: DAX Responds to Mixed Economic Signals and US Inflation Data

DAX Price Chart

The DAX, Germany’s leading stock market index, experienced a decline of 0.92% on the day, closing at 16,881 points. The DAX performed better the previous day, but the upticks were short-lived as it lost gains. However, the reason for its mixed performance can be tied to various factors, including domestic economic data, Eurozone indicators, and developments in the US, particularly regarding inflation and monetary policy expectations. 

Investors will continue to monitor these factors closely for further insights into market trends and potential impacts on the DAX index.

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German and Eurozone Economic Data and Its Impact on DAX

On Tuesday, the previous release of ZEW Economic Sentiment numbers for Germany and the Eurozone provided analysts with insights into the economy. Despite concerns about the German economy, sentiment improved in February, with the German and Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment indices beating forecasts. 

The German index increased from 15.2 to 19.9, while the Eurozone index rose from 22.7 to 25.0. However, these positive indicators failed to boost the DAX, Germany’s leading stock market index, as investors remained cautious ahead of upcoming economic events. 

Looking forward, investors’ attention turned to European GDP data for the fourth quarter. Furthermore, ECB President Christine Lagarde’s commentary was eagerly awaited for fresh clues about monetary policy decisions.

US CPI Report and Bets on a Fed Rate Cut and Its Impact on DAX Index

On the other side, the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on Tuesday significantly impacted market sentiment and the DAX index. Notably, the report indicated a higher-than-expected annual inflation rate of 3.1% for January, although core inflation remained steady at 3.9%.

These figures exceeded economists’ forecasts and led to concerns about potential rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to control inflation. 

As a result, bets on upcoming Fed rate cuts decreased, with expectations shifting from March to May. This expectation change weighed on investor confidence and contributed to heavy losses in US equity markets, including a 1.80% decline in the Nasdaq Composite.

The negative sentiment spilt over into global markets, affecting the performance of the DAX index and leading to declines in various sectors, including technology, retail, and automotive.

The news of higher-than-expected US inflation dampened investor confidence, causing declines in the DAX index across multiple sectors.

DAX Daily Technical Outlook

The DAX Index is a testament to cautious optimism in the European markets, with technical indicators suggesting a subtle but persistent buying trend. The pivot point at €16,890.96 is the demarcation line between bullish and bearish territories.

Should the index maintain above this level, immediate resistance is envisioned at €17,000, followed by €17,042.21 and a more definitive ceiling at €17,111.66.

DAX Price Chart

On the downside, support levels are staged at €16,837.18, €16,752.86, and €16,668.45, respectively. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at €16,890.96 and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 52.28 corroborate the current uptrend, signaling a consolidation of buying pressure.

The upward trendline further fortifies the bullish narrative, indicating a sustained interest in buying above the €16,890 pivot.

Given these technical assessments, the DAX Index’s near-term trajectory tilts toward a bullish inclination, inviting positions above the pivot for those eyeing continued upward momentum.

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Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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