Forex Signals Brief Feb 15: Negative UK GDP and US Retails Expected
Yesterday US bond rates saw some retreat after the surge the previous day, limiting the upward momentum in the USD, which ended up down at the end of the day. Meanwhile, the British pound also experienced a notable decline, dropping from 1.2600 to 1.2535, albeit holding slightly above that level.
This movement followed the release of UK inflation data, which missed estimates of an increase, and stayed unchanged. However, the details of the report indicate persistent inflation in services, likely leading the Bank of England to maintain its current policy stance.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen cautioned against fixating on minor fluctuations in the Consumer Price Index (CPI), labeling such a focus as a “tremendous mistake.” Echoing her sentiment, Austan Goolsbee, President of the Chicago Federal Reserve, emphasized that while inflation rates may experience slight increases, they are still in line with the Federal Reserve’s anticipated path. Goolsbee described the current policy approach as relatively constrained but indicated a readiness to adjust based on fresh evidence.
Today’s Market Expectations
The upcoming economic reports for Australia and the United States are anticipated to have significant implications for their respective currencies and monetary policies.
For Australia, the unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly to 4.0%, with a forecast of 30,000 jobs gained in January. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) remains highly focused on employment indicators, and any unexpected developments could potentially influence the central bank’s stance, although significant shifts are unlikely without such developments.
In the United States, the Retail Sales Month-over-Month (M/M) figure is projected to decline to -0.1%, with the ex-Autos M/M figure expected to be 0.3%. Adverse weather conditions may contribute to the anticipated decrease in retail sales for January. Despite this, recent reports have shown resilience in US retail sales, including a strong performance in the Control Group figure, which increased to 0.8% in the most recent report.
Additionally, the US Jobless Claims report remains crucial for assessing the labor market’s status. Initial Claims are expected to be around 220,000, with Continuing Claims anticipated to be approximately 1,878,000. These figures provide valuable insights into the ongoing trends in jobless claims and can impact market sentiment regarding the labor market’s health.
Ethereum Heading for $3,000 After the Retreat
The price of Ethereum has shown a steady upward trend since experiencing a drop in January that brought it close to $2,000. Our decision to open a buy signal for ETH at that level proved successful, as buyers returned to the market. They managed to push the price beyond $2,700 on Monday, triggering the take profit for our trade. However, the price retraced slightly yesterday, falling $100 lower. Despite this minor pullback, the overall trend for Ethereum remains positive, with buyers demonstrating strong interest in the cryptocurrency.
Ethereum – Daily Chart
- ETH Buy Signal
- Entry Price: $2,290
- Stop Loss: $2,590
- Take Profit: $1,750
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