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Forex Signals Brief Feb 29: Focusing on US PCE Inflation, Canada GDP

Yesterday the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) experienced significant movement following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged but adopt a dovish bias. This decision came as a surprise to some analysts who had anticipated a rate hike or at least a hawkish stance from the central bank. However, the RBNZ described its policy as restrictive, slightly lowered its rate projections for 2024 and 2025, and expressed expectations for a slowdown in growth and inflation.

The economy of Canada is expected to keep the same pace of growth at 0.2% in December

Meanwhile, in the cryptocurrency market, the bullish momentum picked up further, with Bitcoin making notable moves as it tested the $60,000 level during the US trading session. Initially encountering sellers at this level, Bitcoin managed to break above and surged to a high of $64,000. However, more selling pressure quickly emerged, leading to a retracement just below $59 within the next two hours. Despite this pullback, Bitcoin experienced a strong rebound, bouncing sharply to $61,676.

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Today’s Market Expectations

Early today we had the retail sales report from Australia

In the European session, we have the German CPI (Consumer Price Index) report for January, which is expected to show a 0.5% increase, up from 0.2% in December. The Swiss GDP report will also be released this morning and is expected to show a 0.1% growth for December, down from 0.3% in November.

The US Jobless Claims report, which measures the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, has been hovering around cyclical lows. Continuing Claims, which track the number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits for consecutive weeks, remain elevated but stable near cycle highs. For the upcoming release, the consensus forecast anticipates Initial Claims to be at 210K, compared to the previous week’s 201K. Continuing Claims data is not available at the time of writing, but the previous week’s figures showed a decrease to 1,862K from 1,889K.

Additionally, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) Year-on-Year (Y/Y) is projected to come in at 2.4%, down from 2.6% in the previous period, with a Month-on-Month (M/M) measure expected to be 0.3%, up from 0.2%. The Core PCE Y/Y is forecasted to be 2.8%, down from 2.9% in the previous year, while the M/M reading is expected to be 0.4%, up from 0.2%.

Yesterday the volatility in the cryptocurrency market increased further, so we opened two crypto signals, one in Bitcoin and one in Ethereum. We closed three trading signals in total, two of which ended in profit, such as the BTC signal and the Gold signal, while one closed in loss.

Gold Continues to Range Between $2,030 and $2,040

Gold prices have experienced a rebound above $2,000 after a recent drop earlier in the month. Last week, there were multiple attempts by buyers to push the price above the 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) line (yellow), but these attempts were unsuccessful initially. However, on Friday, there was a notable surge in gold prices, resulting in the price breaking above the 50 SMA line convincingly. Despite this breakout, the price of gold has since dipped back below the 50 SMA line this week and is currently trading within a range above the $2,030 mark. This suggests some indecision or resistance in the market, as traders assess the next potential direction for Gold prices.

XAU/USD – Daily chart

USD/CAD Continues to Make New Highs

The Canadian currency has declined over the last two days and continues to fall, as shown in the USD/CAD pair, which has also risen earlier today. The pair broke through the 1.3600 mark, rising as high as 1.3605 before hitting resistance from sellers. As a result, a drop below the two-week high of 1.3585 increased selling pressure. Buyers are predicted to keep control as long as USD/CAD is above the 100-day moving average(green) and the swing high is less than 1.3540. However, a drop below that level may upset purchasers who entered the market after the upward breakout.

USD/CAD – Daily chart

Cryptocurrency Update

Bitcoin Approaches $64,000

Bitcoin is leading a surge in the crypto market, breaking one major level after another and heading toward the record high below $69,000. After breaking through the $50,000 barrier, Bitcoin continued to rise, topping the $55,000 barrier earlier this month and yesterday it pushed above $60,000 as well, reaching a high of around $63,800. We opened a buy BTC signal when the price was below $60,000 and closed it as BTC was retreating after the surge. The price retreated below $60,000 but the 20 SMA (gray) held as support twice.

BTC/USD – 60 minute chart

Ethereum Remains Supported by MAs

ETHEREUM has also experienced a notable increase in value recently, following Bitcoin higher. Although, the bullish momentum seems just a tad slower here, as indicated by the 50 SMA (yellow) which is acting as support on the H1 chart. Yesterday ETH/USD was within touch of $3,500 but it retreted #400 lower. However, the 50 SMA held despite being pierced a couple of times.

  • ETH Buy Signal
  • Entry Price: $2,290
  • Stop Loss: $2,590
  • Take Profit: $1,750
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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