AUD/USD Price Forecast: Powell’s Testimony Awaits Amid 0.6500 Stalemate

The AUD/USD pair exhibits a lack of clear direction at the week’s onset, fluctuating modestly within the 0.6500 region, hovering near a three-week nadir achieved last Thursday.

The market’s cautious stance is largely in anticipation of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming testimony, expected to shed light on potential rate adjustments and their consequent impact on the USD.

Awaiting Powell’s Insight and Key US Data

Market participants are on hold for Powell’s address and upcoming crucial US economic indicators, including the pivotal nonfarm payrolls, poised to guide the pair’s forthcoming trajectory.

US Economic Indicators Stir Market Sentiments

Recent US economic outputs and Federal Reserve officials’ remarks hint at a potential rate cut in June, providing a buffer for the AUD against the USD, alongside China’s stimulus prospects offering additional support.

Global Risk Sentiment and Domestic Factors Weigh on AUD

The Reserve Bank of Australia’s (underscored by domestic economic data) expectations of a steady rate stance and the slight decline in global risk appetite, however, limit the AUD/USD’s upside potential.

Investors are advised to seek significant buying momentum as a confirmation of a near-term base before considering a substantial upward movement for the AUD/USD. In the interim, US bond yields and the overarching risk climate are likely to influence USD dynamics, presenting transient trading scenarios for the pair.

AUD/USD Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

The AUD/USD pair slightly declined by 0.09%, trading at 0.65013. Positioned just below its pivot point of 0.6516, this minor dip indicates a cautious market sentiment. Resistance levels are set at 0.6535, 0.6557, and 0.6583, delineating potential upside barriers.

Conversely, the pair finds immediate support at 0.6490, with additional floors at 0.6470 and 0.6443, suggesting areas of resilience against further drops.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 39 hints at bearish momentum, while the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) closely aligns with the pivot at 0.6517.

Currently, the AUD/USD exhibits a bearish trend beneath 0.6516, hinting at the possibility of a shift towards bullishness if it surpasses this threshold.