Last week was stuffed with central bank meetings, with two of them changing the policy. It started with the Reserve Bank of Australia which kept the Cash Rate unchanged at 4.35% although it tilted into dovish which kept the Australian dollar weak throughout the week.

The Bank of Japan tweaked the policy, raising the policy rate from -0.10% to 0.10% while ending the yield control. This didn’t help the JPY at all, which continued to remain bearish, with USD/JPY targeting the record high at 152 now. The CPI Inflation in Canada and the UK came below expectations, which weighed on the CAD and the GBP.

The FOMC meeting was the most expected and the market took it as dovish initially, sending the USD 100 pips lower across the board. But the sentiment reversed as trades thought that they ran ahead of themselves and the USD turned bullish, ending another week higher.

The Swiss National Bank delivered an unexpected rate cut on Thursday morning, bringing them from 1.75% to 1.50% which sent the CHF lower. The Bank of England closed the week where they held interest rates unchanged as well, but tilted to dovish too, so the GBP also ended up lower, while the USD was the only winner.

This Week’s Market Expectations

The economic calendar this week is much lighter, with Australian February CPI (consumer price index) inflation being the main event. However, there will be volatility as markets digest last week’s events.

Here’s a summary of the key economic events scheduled for the upcoming week:

Tuesday:

• US Durable Goods Orders
• US Consumer Confidence

Wednesday:

• Australia Monthly CPI
• Speech by Fed’s Waller

Thursday:

• Bank of Japan (BoJ) Summary of Opinions
• Australia Retail Sales
• Canada GDP
• US Final Q4 GDP
• US Jobless Claims

Friday:

• US Good Friday Holiday (Market Closed)
• Japan Jobs data
• Tokyo CPI
• Japan Industrial Production and Retail Sales
• US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)
• Speech by Fed Chair Powell

Forex Signals Update

Last week markets were very volatile, with stock markets continuing to make new highs before retreating on Friday, while in forex and cryptocurrencies, we saw a few reversals. We opened 17 trading signals in total, with 10 winning forex signals and 7 losing ones, after getting caught on the wrong sides during the sudden reversals.

Gold Returns Below $2,200 ButFinds Support at MAs

Early last week GOLD retreated lower after reaching a record high in the previous week. However, it stabilised in a certain range. In the second half of the week, we saw another assault to the upside, as Gold buyers pushed the price to $2.222 after the FED meeting. But Gold retreated lower as the USD returned on Thursday, with the XAU/USD pair closing the week at $2,165, forming a support zone above the 50 SMA (yellow) which held the decline.

XAU/USD – 240 minute chart

EUR/USD Keeps Making Lower Highs

After climbing to 1.09426 on Thursday morning, EUR/USD fell around 150 pips in the next two days, dropping to the 1.0800 level by the close of Friday’s market session. The pair experienced a decline of nearly 1.3% from its peak, reaching its lowest levels since the start of this month. The weekly chart shows that this pair failed to break and hold above the 50 SMA (yellow), indicating a strong bearish signal.

EUR/USD – Weekly chart

Cryptocurrency Update

Bitcoin Stuck Between MAs

Last week, Bitcoin (BTC) exhibited significant volatility in the cryptocurrency market. BITCOIN surged to a new all-time high above $73,000 early in the week. However, despite the initial bullish momentum, BTC experienced a negative reversal after reaching the peak. Bitcoin faced selling pressure towards the end of the week, causing its price to dip below $65,000 on Saturday. Nevertheless, Bitcoin saw a reversal in its price trajectory yesterday, with the selloff coming to an end. This reversal brought the price back towards the $70,000 level, indicating renewed buying interest in the cryptocurrency. However, the 100 SMA (green) stopped the climb yesterday, so BTC is currently trading between these two moving averages.

BTC/USD – 240 minute chart

The 50 Daily SA Holds for Ethereum

The consistent upward momentum in Ethereum’s price, despite occasional retracements, indicates the strength of its underlying trend. The ability of Ethereum to find support above the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the H4 chart underscores the importance of this technical level in guiding price movements. Although Ethereum experienced a bearish reversal after surpassing the crucial $4,000 milestone, the support provided by the 50-period SMA attracted buyers, leading to a rise in its price. The recent peak at $4,100 demonstrates the resilience of Ethereum’s upward trend, further supported by its ability to rebound from retracements and find support at key technical levels.

ETH/USD – Daily chart