Yesterday markets saw minor changes as the quarter comes to a close, with anticipation building for significant economic data releases, apart from Gold which made some decent gains and tested the $2,200 level. The economic calendar was relatively quiet, apart from oil inventories and a seven-year auction. However, a substantial fixed-income sale exerted downward pressure on rates, leading to some selling of the dollar, which offset previous gains.

EUR/USD experienced a minimal decline of 2 pips, while the GBP/USD rose by 13 pips. Commodity currencies remained largely steady. Although price movement wasn’t particularly exciting, there were some notable fluctuations during the Asian session and leading up to the European close. The yen has been under close scrutiny following speculation about potential intervention.

Despite this, the market doesn’t seem overly concerned, as buying activity emerged at Asia lows, resulting in a steady 20-pip increase. The JPY was and will be closely monitored as Japan prepares to release key data including CPI, retail sales, employment, and industrial production on Friday. Overall, the FX market saw subdued activity with minor fluctuations in major currency pairs.

Today’s Market ExpectationsToday

The Australian Retail Sales for February opened the day today, which were expected to increase by 0.4% last month, down from 1.1% in January. A Positive reading wouldn’t have too much effect on the AUD, since the RBA is already turning dovish, while a decline would send the AUD lower.

The calendar is light in the European session, but in the US session, we have the GDP report from Canada, which is expected to show a 0.4% expansion in January, after falling flat at 0.0% in December. At the same time, we will get the final US Q4 GDP revisions, which are expected to remain unchanged, so not much impact is expected.

The US Initial Unemployment Claims are forecasted to increase slightly to 215K from the previous week’s figure of 210K. This uptick suggests a minor increase in individuals filing for unemployment benefits. Continuing Claims: Continuing Claims, which represent the number of individuals claiming unemployment benefits for consecutive weeks, have remained relatively stable around the 1,800,000 level. There is no clear consensus for Continuing Claims at the time of writing. However, the previous report showed an increase to 1,807,000 compared to an expectation of 1,820,000. The previous figure was 1,803,000. This indicates a slight rise in ongoing unemployment claims.

Forex Signals Update

Yesterday the volatility was low, with most forex pairs trading in a range, apart from Gold which retested the $2,200 level once again. Cryptocurrencies also tested the upside and reversed down, so now breakouts yesterday. So, we had only one closed trading signal in Gold, which hit the take profit target during the European session.

Gold Retests the $2,200 Level

GOLD exhibited notable volatility during the European session, surging by $30 to reach $2,200 once again, before retracing back lower, but this time it held most of the gains and stayed close to the big level. This price movement indicates a period of consolidation, with the XAU/USD pair trading within a narrow range over the past few hours. On the hourly chart (H1), Moving Averages (SMA) in purple appear to act as a support indicator during pullbacks, providing some stability to the price.

XAU/USD – 60 minute chart

EUR/USD Returns to 1.08 Again

EUR/USD pair has struggled to reach the 1.10 level this month, indicating weakening buying pressure over the longer term. As a result, the pair is now facing potential downside pressure toward the 1.08 level. Earlier this week, there was an attempt to reverse the decline in the pair, prompted by a reevaluation of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision. However, this attempt was weak and ultimately unsuccessful. Federal Reserve (Fed) members have reaffirmed a policy of keeping interest rates higher for a longer duration, which has contributed to maintaining downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair.USD/CHF – Weekly Chart

Cryptocurrency Update

Bitcoin Can’t Hold Gains Above $70,000

The BITCOIN price has surged above $70,000 once again today, continuing its impressive rally since October. However, despite this upward momentum, buyers are encountering difficulty in maintaining the price above the $70,000 level. This suggests that a near-term top may be forming, indicating a potential reversal in the short term. Furthermore, the daily chart setup is reportedly forming a bearish reversing pattern, adding to the indication that a significant retreat may be on the horizon. This pattern could imply that the bullish momentum that has been driving Bitcoin’s price higher is starting to wane, potentially leading to a downward correction. If this bearish pattern materializes and the price retreats, it could present opportunities for traders to capitalize on short-term downward movements in Bitcoin’s price.

BTC/USD – Daily chart

Ethereum Forming A Bearish Revering Pattern at the 20 SMA

ETHEREUM has been finding support at the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the daily chart, highlighted in yellow, which underscores the significance of this technical level in influencing price movements. Despite experiencing a negative reversal after surpassing the critical $4,000 milestone, Ethereum managed to find support at the 50-period SMA. This attracted buyers, leading to a subsequent increase in price. But the 20 SMA (gray0 is acting as resistance and after an upside-down pin on Tuesday, yesterday the price started to reverse.

ETH/USD – Daily chart