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AUD/USD Price Forecast: Eyes on $0.6610 as US CPI Data Looms

The Australian Dollar (AUD) experienced a modest uptick, gaining 0.42% against the US Dollar (USD), settling at 0.6604 as global market sentiment improved and the economic calendar remained light. This shift came amid mixed results on Wall Street, where the S&P 500 and Dow Jones saw declines, while the Nasdaq Composite edged higher.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

The US Dollar’s slight weakening, by 0.16%, as reflected by the US Dollar Index (DXY) at 104.12, contributed to the AUD’s strength. The US economic landscape was relatively quiet, highlighted only by the New York Fed’s Consumer Inflation Expectations for March, which held steady at a 3% increase, mirroring the previous month’s figure.

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The market focus is now on the upcoming US inflation report. A continuation in the downward price trend could signal further weakening of the USD, benefitting risk-oriented currencies like the Australian Dollar.

In Australia, recent economic data showed a drop in Westpac Consumer Sentiment by 2.4%, slightly more than the anticipated 1.8%, and the National Australia Bank (NAB) Business Confidence index rose marginally to 1 from zero.

These indicators provide insights into the economic mood in Australia, influencing the AUD/USD exchange rate. Looking ahead, the market is poised for the US Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) and CPI data, with month-on-month figures expected to show a 0.3% rise, a slight decrease from the previous 0.4%.

The year-on-year CPI is projected to be 3.4%, indicating a subtle inflationary uptick from 3.2%. These economic events and data releases play a crucial role in shaping the AUD/USD price forecast, as traders and investors align their strategies with the evolving economic landscape and market sentiment.

AUD/USD Price Forecast

On April 9, the AUD/USD pair modestly appreciated to 0.66101, a 0.08% rise. The currency finds its pivot at $0.6558, with the trend leaning bullish above this mark. Resistance levels are established at $0.6634, $0.6670, and $0.6719, while supports are identified at $0.6526, $0.6487, and $0.6444.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 63 suggests growing bullish momentum, and the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.6561 provides additional support to the uptrend.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

However, a dip below the pivot point could potentially trigger a significant downward movement. Hence, the AUD/USD outlook remains bullish as long as it stays above the pivotal $0.6558 level, with key technical indicators supporting the positive momentum.

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Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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