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USD Starts to Resume Uptrend, As Labor Market Remains Steady

The labour market has been one of the strongest sectors of the US economy during the last four years of crisis, keeping it afloat, while other sectors crumbled. There were some weak figures late last year, but the sector has recuperated fast, as the NFP report showed, which will help the US economy further.

Jobs remained strong last week

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The US Unemployment Claims report remains a crucial weekly release as it offers timely insights into the state of the labor market in real time. A weakening labor market could increase the risk of disinflation, making it easier for the FED to achieve its inflation target and accelerating interest rate cuts, which is dovish for the USD. But the jobs market remains solid as today’s report showed once again, so we are long on the USD.

Initial Claims have been hovering near cyclical lows, while Continuing Claims have remained stable around the 1,800,000 level. Although there is no consensus available at the moment, last week’s data showed Initial Claims at 211,000 versus an expected 215,000, and Continuing Claims at 1,817,000 compared to an expected 1,800,000.

US Unemployment Claims for Last Week

  • Prior week initial jobless claims 211K revised to 212K
  • initial jobless claims 212K vs 215K estimate
  • initial jobless claims 212K vs 215K estimate
  • 4-week moving average of initial jobless claims 214.5K vs 214.5K last week.
  • Prior week continuing claims 1.817M revised to 1.810M
  • Continuing claims 1.812M vs 1.810M estimate
  • 4-week moving average of continuing claims 1.805M vs 1.801M last week.
  • The largest increases in initial claims for the week ending April 6 were in New Jersey (+4,339), New York (+2,499), Pennsylvania (+1,783), Texas (+1,523), and Florida (+977),
  • The largest decreases were in Iowa (-1,418), California (-631), Ohio (-530), Nevada (-362), and Maryland (-352).

 

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Skerdian Meta
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Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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