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EUR/USD Price Forecast: Eyes on 1.06521 as ECB Speech, PMI Data Loom

Arslan Butt•Sunday, April 21, 2024•2 min read

The EUR/USD pair closed the week slightly higher at 1.06521, marking a modest increase of 0.08%. This adjustment in value hints at a cautious optimism among traders, reflecting a complex interplay of economic indicators and market sentiments.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

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The pair is currently navigating a critical juncture with a pivot point established at 1.0608. Should it maintain above this level, the outlook could turn increasingly bullish. Immediate resistance is observed at 1.0674, with further barriers at 1.0713 and 1.0747 potentially capping upward movements.

Conversely, should the EUR/USD break below its pivot, it could encounter successive support levels at 1.0564, 1.0524, and 1.0482, which would likely catalyze a bearish trend.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 47 suggests a neutral market stance, while the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0685 looms just above the current price, indicating potential resistance that could stifle any bullish momentum.

Looking ahead, the upcoming week is packed with pivotal economic events that could significantly sway the EUR/USD trajectory:

ECB President Lagarde Speaks: Her remarks on April 22 could provide insights into the European Central Bank’s policy direction, influencing the euro.
Flash PMIs from France and Germany: Scheduled for April 23, these indicators will offer a glimpse into the economic health of the Eurozone’s largest economies, with expectations set for both manufacturing and services sectors.
U.S. Economic Releases: A series of U.S. data, including Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI on April 23, followed by New Home Sales and the Richmond Manufacturing Index, will give further clarity on the economic landscape in the U.S.

Further economic indicators throughout the week, such as the German Ifo Business Climate Index and U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders, will provide additional data points for traders to gauge the economic momentum in both regions.

Given the dense calendar of economic events, traders will need to stay vigilant. The potential impact of these data releases on market sentiment and monetary policy expectations could drive significant volatility in the EUR/USD pair.

In conclusion, while the technical setup suggests a guarded bullish stance above the 1.0608 level, upcoming economic events hold the key to determining the pair’s direction in the short to medium term.

A decisive break above or below the noted technical levels, influenced by economic data and policy cues, will likely set the tone for the EUR/USD’s movement in the coming days.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Index & Commodity Analyst

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.