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GBP/USD Price Forecast: Closes at $1.23654 Amid Key Economic Events Ahead
Arslan Butt•Sunday, April 21, 2024•2 min read
The GBP/USD pair concluded the week at approximately $1.23654, reflecting a decrease of 0.57%. This movement underscores a continued bearish trend for the British Pound against the US Dollar, navigating through key technical levels and external economic indicators that influence market dynamics.
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The pair’s immediate pivot point stands at $1.2402, with subsequent resistance levels at $1.2471, $1.2525, and $1.2583.
These markers represent critical junctures where bullish momentum could potentially be revived if surpassed. Conversely, support levels are established at $1.2328, $1.2290, and $1.2245. A breach below these could exacerbate the bearish trend, intensifying selling pressures.
Technical indicators suggest a cautious outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 31, signalling a potential oversold condition that might entice buyers back into the market.
Additionally, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.2484 serves as a significant resistance level, reinforcing the importance of the $1.2402 pivot point. A sustained movement below this EMA could confirm the bearish sentiment, while a breakout above could shift the market’s mood to a more bullish stance.
This upcoming week holds several key economic events that could influence the GBP/USD trajectory. Here’s a summary of the upcoming key economic events that are likely to influence the GBP/USD pair:
April 23rd Economic Indicators:
- UK Flash Manufacturing PMI for April is projected to stay steady at 50.3, indicating a balanced state between expansion and contraction in the manufacturing sector.
- UK Flash Services PMI for April is expected to slightly dip to 53.0 from 53.1, suggesting a minimal slowdown in services sector growth.
US Economic Releases on April 23rd:
- Flash Manufacturing PMI is anticipated to be slightly above the neutral mark at 52.0, down from 51.9 previously.
- Flash Services PMI is also forecasted at 52.0, maintaining stability in the services sector.
April 24th and 25th US Data:
- Core Durable Goods Orders are expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month in April, mirroring the previous month’s increase.
- Advance GDP for Q1 is projected at 2.5%, showing a decrease from the prior quarter’s 3.4% growth rate, which may signal a slowing economy.
Significant Reports on April 26th:
- Core PCE Price Index m/m for April is forecasted to increase by 0.3%, consistent with previous months, reflecting ongoing inflation pressures.
- Revised University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for April is expected to adjust slightly to 77.8 from 77.9, indicating steady consumer confidence.
In summary, while the GBP/USD pair shows potential for recovery above the $1.2402 level, the prevailing market conditions and upcoming economic data will play significant roles in determining its direction.
Traders should monitor these developments closely, as shifts in economic indicators or sudden geopolitical events could quickly alter market sentiment.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
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Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics.His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker.His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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