The EUR to USD rate increased 150 pips since mid-April, but the upside has stalled at the 20 daily SMA and fundamentals are not helping the Euro. Today we had a number of GDP reports from European countries, as well as the Eurozone inflation CPI for April which didn’t give much reason to the Euro to rally.

EUR/USD Chart Daily – Uptrend Stalling at the 20 SMA

After bottoming out at 1.06, the EUR/USD currency pair moved higher for almost two weeks. However, on Friday, there was a significant bearish reversal that erased Thursday’s gains and engulfed the previous day’s candlestick, indicating a potential continuation of the downtrend for the Euro. Last week, this forex pair broke above the 1.07 resistance level, suggesting possible bullish momentum. However, the rejection at the 1.0750 level and the 20-day moving average (gray) indicate strong resistance in that area.

Eurozone April Preliminary CPI Released by Eurostat – 30 April 2024

• April preliminary CPI came in at +2.4% year-on-year (y/y), in line with expectations.
• The March reading was also +2.4%.
• Core CPI stood at +2.7% y/y, slightly higher than the expected +2.6%.
• The prior reading for Core CPI was +2.9%.

The headline data aligns with expectations, except for core annual inflation, which is slightly higher. However, it has decreased from 2.9% in March, suggesting that pricing pressures are generally easing. The primary concern is whether inflation will persist just above 2% in the upcoming months. Nevertheless, at present, this is unlikely to deter the ECB from implementing interest rate cuts in June.

Eurozone Q1 preliminary GDP

• Eurozone Q1 preliminary GDP +0.3% vs +0.1% q/q expected
• Q4 GDP was 0.0%

EUR/USD Live Chart