Gold (XAU/USD) Price Forecast: XAU Declines Below $2,315 Amid Fed Meeting Anticipation

Gold prices dipped in Tuesday’s Asian trading, closing significantly below their recent highs at approximately $2,315 per ounce.

This downward movement is primarily attributed to rising expectations that U.S. interest rates will remain elevated for an extended period, influenced by the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting.

Anticipation of Hawkish Fed Policy:

Investor focus is intensively on the Federal Reserve, which is expected to maintain current interest rates in its forthcoming session.

With inflation rates remaining high, Fed Chair Jerome Powell might project a more hawkish stance on future rate adjustments, which could underpin the U.S. dollar and apply additional pressure on gold prices.

Inflation and Dollar Strength Impact Gold:

As the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index reaffirmed persistent inflation, expectations for an imminent rate cut have diminished, shifting market sentiment towards the dollar and away from traditional safe havens like gold.

The dollar’s strength, particularly after rebounding from a two-week low, has been a critical factor in gold’s current valuation.

Geopolitical Developments and Market Sentiment:

The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, especially with ongoing peace talks between Israel and Hamas, has also lessened the appeal of gold as a safe haven.

However, the gold market remains cautious, with traders reluctant to place aggressive bets ahead of significant economic indicators and central bank decisions.

Upcoming Economic Indicators:

This week is pivotal for gold traders, with the U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and other major economic reports due, including the Chicago PMI and the Consumer Confidence Index. These indicators will likely influence the Federal Reserve’s decisions on interest rates and provide further direction for the dollar and gold prices.

Gold’s immediate future will hinge on these developments, with its price forecast indicating potential volatility depending on the outcomes of these economic events and central bank policies.

Gold Price Forecast: Technical Outlook

Gold prices closed at $2,329.48, experiencing a modest drop of 0.40%, positioning the precious metal slightly below the significant threshold of $2,345. This price movement reflects subdued market sentiment as traders weigh a mix of macroeconomic factors and broader market trends.

The gold market is currently encountering resistance at $2,361, with additional resistance points at $2,383 and $2,403. A surge past these levels might reflect growing investor optimism, possibly spurred by ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties or changes in the broader financial environment.

Conversely, support for gold is established at $2,314, followed by $2,291 and $2,268. Falling below these support levels could suggest a buildup of bearish momentum, influenced potentially by a strengthening U.S. dollar or increasing real yields.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of gold stands at $2,344, aligning closely with its pivot point, indicating a critical moment for the metal’s trading strategy. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 46, indicating a neutral market momentum with a slight tilt towards bearishness.