Forex Signals Brief June 11: UK Employment Highlights the Day

Yesterday it was Monday and the price action was slow. Following Friday’s NFP announcement, the EURUSD maintained its downward trend after gapping lower. Admittedly, it was held during the weekend EU elections. Buyers pushed the EURUSD back higher as the USD pulled back from Friday’s 1 cent rise after the NFP.

UK Employment Report for May

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However, commodities dollars benefited the most, as did gold, which soared back above $1,300, indicating that the previous trading ranges in most assets remain in effect. We got the US Conference Board Employment Trends report out yesterday, which was favorable and confirmed the strong NFP report, but it didn’t help the USD because traders are still focusing on tomorrow’s US inflation and FOMC meeting.

Today’s Market Expectations

Today the economic calendar is light, with traders trying to adjust positions ahead of tomorrow’s US CPI inflation report and the FOMC meeting, However, the is the employment data from the UK. While stability is expected in the unemployment rate and wage growth figures, the BoE’s focus on inflation data suggests that today’s report may not lead to significant changes in monetary policy expectations.

The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.3%, reflecting stability in the labor market, while Average earnings including bonuses are projected at 5.7%, and average earnings excluding bonuses at 6.0%. This suggests steady wage growth compared to previous months. Last month’s data showed an increase in the unemployment rate and job losses, despite unexpected growth in earnings.

However, the BoE is now more focused on inflation data rather than employment figures. Unless there are significant shocks in today’s data, it is unlikely to alter the central bank’s stance. The market anticipates a 30 basis point easing by the end of the year. However, today’s employment report may not have a substantial impact on these expectations, given the BoE’s current emphasis on inflationary pressures.

The Building Permits for May from Canada will also be released later in the US session. Permits turned negative in the previous month, declining by 11.7%, however, May’s expectations are for a positive reversal and an increase of 4.9 %, however this is a low tier data.

Yesterday the price action was slow in financial markets, however the sentiment was positive and risk assets were crawling higher on the back of a weaker USD. We opened several trades in forex, commodities and indices, most of which hit the take profit target, while a couple hit SL, however the win/loss ratio was quite positive.

Gold Climbs Above $2,300 Again

Gold has encountered various obstacles, most notably a strengthening US dollar and better economic indicators, which have decreased the precious metal’s appeal as a safe haven asset. The change in gold prices last week followed the robust NFP. However, the drop came to an end at $2,287, with the 200 SMA (purple) functioning as support on the H4 chart. Yesterday, we observed a bounce off this moving average, as the low level of $2.300 continues to draw buyers.Chart XAUUSD, H4, 2024.06.10 23:27 UTC, MetaQuotes Ltd., MetaTrader 5, Demo

XAU/USD – H4 chart

The 200 SMA Holds As Support for AUD/USD

The USD/AUD rate has been oscillating in a confined 100-pip range, with moving averages (MAs) acting as obstacles for AUD/USD. Following the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report on Friday, the pair fell 100 pips after failing to break through the 200 SMA (purple) resistance. However, the 100 SMA (red) provided support, resulting in a comeback for the Australian dollar Tuesday, aided by some USD weakening as traders closed out some of their Sell positions from Friday.Chart AUDUSD, D1, 2024.06.10 23:37 UTC, MetaQuotes Ltd., MetaTrader 5, Demo

AUD/USD – Daily Chart

Cryptocurrency Update

The 20 SMA Continues to Hold for Bitcoin 

The cryptocurrency market hasn’t seen any significant advancements in the recent two weeks, with BTC witnessing divergent price movements. Bitcoin’s long-term uptrend remains strong, as indicated by its ability to stay above the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), a key support level. Recent market activity has seen Bitcoin break over major resistance levels, however it has been trading below $70K this week. But the 20-day is holding as support.

BTC/USD – Daily chart

Ethereum Continues to Consolidate Below $4,000

Ethereum (ETH) has likewise been trading in a range since the increase following the approval of the ETH ETF, reaching a high of $3,832.50. This price spike is attributable to increased confidence following the SEC’s more favourable position on spot Ether ETFs. Ethereum’s recent performance, which includes a spectacular 25% gain from its prior top, demonstrates robust market demand and investor interest. Despite Ethereum’s optimistic trend, its value has recently declined, with ETH/USD trading below $4,000 for the past two weeks.

ETH/USD – Daily chart

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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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