Oil Prices Above $80 Despite Inventory Buildup

Oil prices stayed in a tight range for the majority of the day today as the market weighed fears about growing conflicts across the world with demand concerns following an unexpected increase in U.S. API crude inventory levels. However, this week they have already made some decent gains and some major breaks.

WTI crude oil prices faced severe resistance at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) on the daily chart and the 200-day SMA (purple). Despite this, buyers managed to push the price above these moving averages, successfully breaking above the $80 level.

Last week, oil prices remained subdued following a more hawkish tone from the Federal Reserve. However, this week saw a resurgence in buyer interest, driving WTI crude prices up by more than $2. International concerns escalated as geopolitical tensions intensified. A Ukrainian drone attack ignited a fire at a critical oil facility in a key Russian port, heightening regional instability.

Meanwhile, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz issued warnings of a potential “all-out war” involving Lebanon’s Hezbollah, amid broader efforts by the US to prevent a larger conflict that could involve Iran-backed forces. The rising conflict in the region raises concerns about potential disruptions to oil supplies from major producers.

WTI Oil Chart Daily – Buyers Have Pushed the Price Above MAs

The latest API crude Oil inventory data which was released last night showed a surprising increase, with headline crude oil inventories rising by more than 2 million barrels, contrary to the expected decrease of more than 2 million barrels. Distillates also saw an unexpected increase, with inventories up by more than 500K barrels compared to the anticipated rise of 300,000 barrels. Gasoline inventories, however, declined by more than 1 million barrels against the forecasted increase of 600,000 barrels. Additionally, Cushing inventories increased by 524,000 barrels, while the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) rose by 400,000 barrels.

API Crude Oil Inventories

• Headline Crude Oil Inventory:

  • Actual: +2.264 million barrels
  • Expected: -2.2 million barrels

• Distillates:

  • Actual: +538,000 barrels
  • Expected: +300,000 barrels

• Gasoline:

  • Actual: -1.077 million barrels
  • Expected: +600,000 barrels
• Cushing: +524,000 barrels
• Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR): +400,000 barrels

US WTI Crude Oil Live Chart

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Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

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