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WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: Trading at $80.50 Amid Geopolitical Tensions

Crude oil prices dipped on Wednesday after reaching seven-week highs, influenced by summer demand optimism and concerns over escalating conflicts. Brent crude futures fell 0.1% to $85.27 per barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped 0.1% to $81.47 per barrel.

Earlier in the session, Brent hit $85.84, the highest since May 1, and WTI reached $81.96, the highest since April 30. The trading activity was thin due to a U.S. federal holiday.

Geopolitical Risks and Supply Disruptions

The market saw significant movement after a Ukrainian drone strike caused a fire at a major Russian oil terminal, boosting both benchmarks by over $1 in the previous session.

Additionally, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz warned of a possible “all-out war” with Lebanon’s Hezbollah, increasing concerns over potential supply disruptions in the oil-producing region.

Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Bank, noted that the potential escalation of Middle Eastern tensions adds supply risk to the oil demand equation.

Market Sentiment and Economic Data

Despite the current dip, Tamas Varga of oil broker PVM highlighted that Brent’s price, being $8 above early June lows, indicates genuine optimism for tightening global oil balances.

China’s recent data showed May industrial output lagged expectations, but retail sales recorded the quickest growth since February.

Impact of U.S. Inventory Report

U.S. crude stocks unexpectedly rose by 2.264 million barrels in the week ending June 14, according to the American Petroleum Institute, against analysts’ expectations of a 2.2 million barrel draw.

However, gasoline inventories fell by 1.077 million barrels, while distillates rose by 538,000 barrels. Official data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected on Thursday, which will provide further market direction.

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast: Assessing Future Trends

The recent fluctuations in crude oil prices, coupled with geopolitical tensions and mixed economic data, suggest a cautious outlook for WTI Crude Oil. The price movement will continue to be influenced by developments in the Middle East and U.S. inventory reports.

Market participants should monitor these factors closely to gauge future trends in the oil market.

WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast

WTI Crude Oil is trading at $80.50, showing a slight decline of 0.07%. The pivot point at $80.81 is crucial for determining the next price movement. Immediate resistance levels are $81.52, $82.13, and $82.93.

On the downside, immediate support is found at $79.99, with further support at $79.11 and $77.95.Technical indicators show the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 59, indicating moderate momentum.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $79.65, suggesting a potential support level. The overall outlook remains bearish below $80.81, but a break above this level could trigger bullish momentum. Conversely, staying below $80.81 could drive a continued downtrend.

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Arslan Butt
Index & Commodity Analyst
Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.
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