Forex Signals Brief August 8: Jobless Claims Are So Important Now

This push sent the USD/JPY to 147.90 and boosted European stock markets. However, everything collapsed in late US trade as a softer Treasury auction sent tremors through the markets. A decent increase in stocks turned into a considerable loss at the end of the day, while Nvidia shares saw an 8% decline. Bitcoin’s early decline toward 65K indicated that investors’ risk appetite was not very strong.

The 10-year Treasury auction saw a 3 basis point tail before the next tipping point. Given the volatility of bonds, the miss was not a major surprise, and it was still below 4%. However, it indicates that real money isn’t as nervous as it was earlier in the week when it was at 3.67%. As a result, the dollar increased by 30–40 points across most fronts.

Today’s Market Expectations

This week’s US Unemployment Claims report is very significant because it serves as a timely indicator of the labor market’s status, making it one of the most crucial publications to monitor. This particular release is especially critical as it follows weak US jobs data from Friday, adding to the market’s anxiety.

Initial Claims have been trending toward the upper bound recently, but they remain within the 200K–260K range established in 2022. In contrast, Continuing Claims have been steadily increasing, reaching another cycle high last week. This week’s Initial Claims are expected to be 250K, up from 249K last week. As of now, there is no consensus on Continuing Claims, despite an increase to 1877K from 1844K prior.

Yesterday the volatility was slow initially but picked up later, although it was nothing compared to Monday. Therefore we opened four trading signals in total, but ended up with just two closed signals. Both were stock signals, as we went long on the first half of the day, when they were still climbing, so both were winning trading signals.

Gold Continues Lower Below $2,400

Early this week, gold suffered a decline, reaching $2,364.34 by Monday morning. However, yesterday saw some positive activity, with XAU rising above $2,400. Despite this, gold buyers faced overhead resistance, including the 200 SMA, which rejected the price. Subsequently, gold reversed downward as risk appetite worsened in the latter part of the US session, closing the day at $2,380.

XAU/USD – Daily chart

USD/JPY Bounces Off the 100 Weekly SMA

In roughly a month, USD/JPY fell 20 cents, with losses intensifying over the past two weeks. However, a reversal has occurred in recent days. Despite this, markets remain extremely volatile even with reduced leverage, as many traders incurred significant losses during the massive movements across nearly all financial markets. After hitting a low of 141.69 yesterday, USD/JPY increased as market confidence grew, closing at 147.90. However, the sentiment shifted, and the pair began to decrease again, indicating that volatility persists.

USD/JPY – Daily Chart

Cryptocurrency Update

Bitcoin Fails at Resistance, Returns to $55K

BTC/USD – Daily chart

The 20 SMA Rejects Ethereum 

Ethereum has been trading at lower highs since early March, signaling a potential downtrend which has materialized in August. Ethereum’s price peaked at $3,830 and then fell below $3,000 in June. When buyers entered the market, the price rose above the 50-day SMA, which had previously served as resistance. However, with the recent sell-off intensifying over the last few days, we witnessed another bearish reversal, pushing ETH below the 200 SMA and continuing the pattern of lower highs. The price fell to $2,000 yesterday but later rebounded to $2,400.

ETH/USD – Daily chart