Gold Price: Struggles at $2,660 Resistance – Will It Break Lower to $2,635?

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,654, down 0.23% for the day after facing strong resistance at $2,661. The metal’s struggle to gain traction reflects investor sentiment, influenced by the latest U.S. economic data.

On Tuesday, the ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 47.2, below the forecast of 47.6, while the JOLTS Job Openings report showed a slight increase to 8.04 million, surpassing the previous month’s 7.71 million. The underperformance in these key indicators has sparked uncertainty, pushing investors away from safe-haven assets like gold.

Additionally, market participants are awaiting fresh cues from the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report, due to be released today, which could set the tone for the Federal Reserve’s future policy decisions.

#XAUUSD corrective slide may extend below $2,600
Gold price is down for a second consecutive day, trading at around $2,635 in the mid-American session . The bright metal eased despite a mixed market mood. Most Asian indexes closed in the green, although Japanese ones edged lower

— The Falcon Tutorials (@falcontutorials) October 1, 2024

Technical Analysis: Key Resistance and Support Levels

Technically, gold is navigating a critical juncture. The metal hit resistance at $2,661, which aligns with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Failing to break this level could push prices lower, testing the immediate support at $2,651. A drop below this threshold may expose the $2,634 and $2,624 levels, where stronger support is likely to emerge. On the upside, clearing the $2,661 resistance could pave the way for a rally toward $2,673 and $2,683.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is trending at 50.90, suggesting a neutral stance but signaling a potential bearish bias if it dips below the 40 mark. This would indicate growing selling pressure, making a break below $2,651 more probable.

In a new report, Goldman Sachs estimates that 100 tonnes of physical demand lifts gold prices by at least 2.4%.

At today's #gold price of $2,680/oz, a 2.4% increase = $65/oz

100 tonnes of gold = US$8 billion

$8 billion of physical demand lifts the gold price $65 📈 pic.twitter.com/uRdzVJAog6

— CEO Technician (@CEOTechnician) October 1, 2024

Short-Term Forecast: Bearish Sentiment Remains

In the short term, gold’s outlook remains cautiously bearish unless it can secure a close above $2,661. Today’s ADP employment data will be crucial in determining the next move. If the data surprises to the upside, gold could see renewed selling pressure, driving prices toward the lower support levels. Conversely, disappointing data may provide temporary relief, pushing the metal above the $2,661 pivot.

Key Insights:

• Immediate Resistance: $2,661 – A crucial level for potential bullish momentum.
• Support Levels: $2,651 and $2,634 – Breaking below these could accelerate declines.
• Bearish Momentum: RSI at 50.90 and price below the 50-day EMA signal a cautious outlook.

With multiple Federal Reserve speakers scheduled to deliver remarks today, any dovish comments could offer gold a temporary reprieve, but the broader trend remains bearish for now.