Gold Price Forecast: $2,656 Rally Extends for Fourth Session Amid Geopolitical Risks

Recent developments include Ukraine’s use of British Storm Shadow missiles against Russian targets and the United States vetoing a U.N. resolution for a Gaza ceasefire, intensifying market uncertainty. “Fears of a broader regional conflict, coupled with economic risks, are pushing gold prices higher,” noted Kyle Rodda, a financial market analyst at Capital.com .

Fed Policy Expectations and Market Dynamics

Market speculation around Federal Reserve monetary policy remains a key focus. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 56% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December. While such a move might temporarily weigh on gold prices, analysts believe its long-term outlook remains bullish.

On Wednesday, contrasting statements from two Fed governors underscored the mixed outlook. One highlighted persistent inflation concerns, while the other expressed optimism about ongoing progress in reducing price pressures. These diverging views leave investors awaiting further clarity from Fed officials.

Meanwhile, SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, reported a 0.36% increase in holdings, reaching 875.39 tonnes on Wednesday—a clear indication of heightened investor interest in the metal.

Technical Analysis: Gold’s Bullish Trend Continues

Gold  (XAU/USD) maintains a bullish trajectory, trading within an upward channel. The price currently holds above the 50-day EMA at $2,646, which serves as immediate support. Resistance is seen at $2,666, followed by $2,685 and $2,708 if momentum continues.

The RSI has reached 70, signaling overbought conditions, but the sustained upward channel suggests potential for further gains. Immediate support lies at $2,646, with the next levels at $2,623 and $2,597.

Key Insights:

• Immediate Support: $2,646; Next Support: $2,623

• Immediate Resistance: $2,666; Next Resistance: $2,685

• RSI: 70, indicating overbought conditions but with continued bullish potential.