GBPUSD Heads to 1.27 on Month-End Flows, After Higher US PCE Inflation
Today GBPUSD is surging despite higher PCE inflation and personal income in the US, which comes from month-end flows due to Thanksgiving.
Written by:
Skerdian Meta•Wednesday, November 27, 2024•1 min read
•Last updated: Wednesday, November 27, 2024
Today GBPUSD is surging despite higher PCE inflation and personal income in the US, which comes from month-end flows as US markets close the week today, being Thanksgiving Day tomorrow.
The GBP/USD opened Monday with a 60-pip bullish gap, briefly climbing above 1.26. However, a softening in risk sentiment saw the pair retreat to lows near 1.05. Despite this pullback, strong bullish momentum has emerged today, driving the price over 1 cent higher to approach 1.27. This movement reflects ongoing expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will continue cutting rates, even as UK inflation trends downward.
GBP/USD Chart Daily – Buyers Facing the 200 SMA
In the U.S., higher PCE core inflation — the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure — aligns with elevated CPI and PPI data seen earlier, reinforcing expectations of a 0.3% month-over-month and 2.8% year-over-year increase for October. However, these results are largely in line with forecasts, leaving little room for significant bullish moves in the USD based on the report. Market sentiment remains steady, with the probability of a Fed rate cut in December holding at 65%.
Core PCE Inflation Report for October
Year-over-Year: +2.8% (in line with expectations, up from +2.7% in September).
Month-over-Month: +0.3% (in line with expectations).
Unrounded Core M/M: +0.274%.
Headline PCE Inflation:
Year-over-Year: +2.3% (in line with expectations, up from +2.1% prior).
Month-over-Month: +0.2% (in line with expectations).
Unrounded Headline M/M: +0.238%.
Consumer Spending and Income (October):
Personal Income: +0.6% (higher than +0.4% expected, prior +0.2%).
Personal Spending: +0.4% (higher than +0.3% expected, prior +0.6%).
Real Personal Spending: +0.1% (lower than +0.5% prior).
Savings Rate: 4.4%
This data highlights steady inflationary pressures alongside robust consumer income growth, although real spending gains were subdued. The strong income figure might reinforce resilience in household finances, but a slight deceleration in real spending indicates some caution in consumption. The 4.4% savings rate suggests consumers are maintaining a moderate buffer amid economic uncertainties.
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.