Silver Price Analysis: XAG Holds at $31; More Upside Ahead?
Silver (XAG/USD) stabilized above $31, gaining 0.10% intraday, as investors navigated the dual impact of geopolitical tensions and U.S. rate cut expectations.
Rising conflicts, such as Russia’s missile strikes on Ukraine and North Korea’s alignment with Russia, have elevated demand for safe-haven assets like silver.
Economic uncertainty has added to silver’s appeal, particularly as U.S. Treasury yields have declined to their lowest levels since October. While the Federal Reserve has signaled a longer period of high interest rates, market participants are increasingly betting on a 0.25% rate cut this month. The CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows a 75% probability of a rate reduction, which could further bolster non-yielding assets like silver.
Despite the ongoing strength of the U.S. dollar, geopolitical instability and a potential pivot in Fed policy continue to support silver prices.
 [[XAG/USD-graph]]
Economic Data Fuels Market Volatility
The U.S. economy delivered mixed signals, adding complexity to silver’s outlook. The ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.4 in November, suggesting signs of stabilization in economic activity. However, concerns linger over the impact of President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed trade tariffs, which have added a layer of uncertainty to global trade.
Treasury yields remain subdued, with the 10-year bond at a multi-month low. This environment makes silver increasingly attractive as a hedge against both inflation and volatility. Analysts believe that the Fed’s potential pivot toward rate cuts could add further upside to the white metal’s price trajectory.
Key economic drivers:
PMI Data: November ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.4.
Fed Rate Speculation: 75% chance of a 0.25% cut in December.
Treasury Yields: 10-year yield at multi-month lows boosts silver’s appeal.
Silver Price Analysis: Bullish Momentum Builds Above $31
Silver’s breakout above its descending channel signals a potential bullish reversal. The price is holding firmly above the pivot point at $30.96, with resistance levels at $31.41, $31.75, and $32.15. On the downside, support is seen at $30.72, $30.38, and $30.03.
The RSI at 62.78 leans bullish, indicating room for further gains, while the 50-day EMA at $30.68 serves as robust support. A sustained move above $31.41 could accelerate momentum toward $32.15, whereas a break below $30.72 risks a deeper correction.
Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data, including the Nonfarm Payrolls report and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell, for clues on silver’s near-term trajectory.
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