AUDUSD Bounces Off 2025 Support As Australian Unemployment Rate Falls Below 4%
AUDUSD has been sliding lower, with the RBA dovish shift giving sellers another reason to continue, and yesterday they tested the 2024 support zone ahead of, but bounced after decline in the Unemployment Rate from Australia.
China, Australia’s largest trading partner, announced additional monetary easing over the weekend, providing a significant boost to the AUD/USD pair, which surged nearly 1 cent higher on Monday. However, the rally lost momentum as the price failed to breach the 0.65 level. The subsequent Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) announcement introduced a more dovish tone, causing the pair to decline and nullifying the gains from the Chinese stimulus.
AUD/USD Chart Daily – The Support at 0.6350 Was Broken
Australia’s seasonally adjusted real GDP growth slowed to 0.8% year over year, down from 1.0% in the previous quarter. This decline highlights the ongoing challenges posed by weak household consumption, with private spending remaining stagnant. Reflecting this economic fragility, the RBA released a less hawkish statement, emphasizing that future policy decisions will be data-driven and shaped by evolving risk assessments.
The statement hints at the possibility of interest rate cuts in the near future. In this context, today’s Australian jobs report held heightened importance as it could influence the RBA’s next steps. It was surprisingly good, which gives the RBA another reason to justify the tight policy and sending AUD/USD 50 pips higher.
Australian Employment Report for November
Employment Change:
- Actual: +35.6k (outperformed expectations)
- Expected: +25.0k
- Prior: Revised to +15.9k
Unemployment Rate:
- Actual: 3.9% (significantly lower than forecast)
- Expected: 4.2%
- Prior: 4.1%
Participation Rate:
- Actual: 67.0% (marginally below expectations)
- Expected: 67.1%
- Prior: 67.1%
- Full-Time Employment:
- Actual: +52.6k (strong growth in full-time positions)
- Prior: +9.7k
Part-Time Employment:
- Actual: -17.0k (decline compared to October gains)
- Prior: +6.2k
The November labor market data highlights robust employment growth, driven primarily by a significant increase in full-time positions. The unemployment rate fell to a historically low 3.9%, well below expectations, underscoring a tight labor market. However, the marginal dip in the participation rate and the decline in part-time jobs may indicate nuanced dynamics, such as shifts from part-time to full-time roles.
These results suggest ongoing resilience in Australia’s labor market and could influence monetary policy considerations. The October report was a bit of a let down, but this is a huge bounce back in November, which has sent AUD/USD above 0.64 again.
AUD/USD Live Chart
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