USDCHF Rebound Continues After the 4th SNB Rate Cut

The volatility in the CHF to USD rate continues, as the rebound in this forex pair continues, taking the price more than 1 cent higher, with the SNB helping along the way.

The USD/CHF pair has shown strong recovery over the past two months, climbing over 5.5 cents and moving above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) (purple). However, it faced a reversal of 1.5 cents from its November high. Currently, the pair is fluctuating between the upper boundary marked by the 200-day SMA and the lower support at the 100-day SMA (red).

USD/CHF Chart Daily – The MAs Held As Support

Last week’s pullback found support at the 100-day SMA, aligning with the dovish outlook of the Swiss National Bank (SNB). The SNB’s stance was reinforced by negative inflation data in November, confirming persistently low inflation in Switzerland. This movement has also been influenced by economic weakness in Germany and the broader Eurozone.

On Friday, the 100-hour SMA gave way, offering sellers a brief opportunity to assert control, but they failed to sustain the momentum. This week, buyers have regained strength, using the recent bounce to push for a breakout above the 100-hour SMA, seeking to extend the upward trend.

Swiss National Bank (SNB) Policy Meeting – December 12

• Key Policy Rate:

  • Cut by 50 bps to 0.50% (from 1.00% previously).

• FX Market:

  • SNB remains prepared to intervene as necessary.

• Inflationary Pressure:

  • Underlying inflationary pressure has decreased again this quarter.
• Economic Outlook:
  • Uncertainty on the economic outlook has increased in recent months.
  • Both Swiss and global forecasts are subject to significant uncertainty.
• Monetary Policy Stance:
  • Will continue to monitor the situation closely and adjust policy as required.
• Economic Growth Projections:
  • 2024: ~1.0% (unchanged).
  • 2025: ~1.5% (unchanged).
• Inflation Projections:
  • 2024: 1.1% (previously 1.2%).
  • 2025: 0.3% (previously 0.6%).
  • 2026: 0.8% (previously 0.7%).

The SNB adopted a more accommodative stance, reducing the policy rate by 50 bps amid easing inflationary pressures and growing uncertainty in the global and domestic economic outlook. Growth projections remain steady, but inflation expectations were revised lower for 2024–2026, reflecting subdued price dynamics. The central bank remains vigilant, ready to intervene in currency markets and adapt policy to evolving conditions.

USD/CHF Live Chart

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Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.

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