Forex Signals Brief February 26: Markets Feel Nervous Ahead of Nvidia Earnings
Yesterday the crypto crash highlighted the day, today market will focus on Nvidia earnings among other factors.
Weak US consumer confidence data today heightened concerns about slowing consumer spending, triggering a selloff in equities, increased demand for bonds, and a decline in the US dollar. Adding to market uncertainty, Congress remains stalled on the Trump administration’s tax cut plan, though a potential vote may still take place later.
Tariffs and Currency Weakness Weigh on Markets
Trade tensions continue to trouble the markets, with tariffs putting pressure on investor sentiment. The Canadian dollar (CAD) was the weakest-performing currency yesterday, weighed down by both tariff concerns and falling oil prices. Stock markets also remained under pressure, with Tesla plunging nearly 10% and AMD closing lower ahead of its upcoming earnings report.
Cryptocurrency Flash Crash and Recovery
The biggest market event, however, was the sudden crash in cryptocurrencies, which saw Bitcoin (BTC) plunge below $90,000, reaching a low of $86,000, while XRP dipped close to $2. Despite the sharp selloff, both BTC and XRP rebounded late in the session, preventing the charts from looking overly bearish by the end of the day.
Today’s Market Expectations
Nvidia Revenue Report
Uncertainty around Nvidia’s upcoming Q4 earnings has investors closely watching its 2025 profit and sales outlook. Adding to concerns is the emergence of DeepSeek, a new AI competitor focused on efficiency, affordability, and open-source technology. Despite these challenges, Nvidia’s revenue potential remains strong, particularly due to rising demand for its H20 chips in China. U.S. export restrictions have prompted major Chinese firms like Tencent, Alibaba, and ByteDance to ramp up purchases of these chips, which are exclusive to the Chinese market.
This demand could bolster Nvidia’s earnings outlook for 2025, with analysts expecting a sharp rise in Q4 2024 revenue, driven by AI adoption across government and corporate sectors. However, if results fall short of expectations, Nvidia’s stock could face significant downside pressure.
Yesterday the volatility picked up considerably commodities, with Gold, Silver and crude Oil tumbling lower after positive news on Ukraine, which should have caught many traders on the wrong side, particularly in XAU longs. However the decline was a good opportunity to go long in Gold and cryptocurrencies as well.
Buyers Couldn’t Wait for the Pullback to Buy Gold
Gold’s recent surge met resistance as it broke through the 20 SMA and 50 SMA, which had provided support since early 2025, before stabilizing at the 100 SMA on the H4 chart. Over the past year, GOLD has experienced a relentless rally, climbing nearly 50% from around $2,000 at the start of 2024. Both positive and negative risk sentiment have fueled this rise, with buyers consistently pushing prices to new highs. On Monday, gold hit another record, surpassing $2,956 while holding support at key moving averages. However, a sharp bearish reversal led to a flash crash, dropping prices below $2,900, but the bounce off the 100 SMA to climb $20 again was also impressive.
XAU/USD – H4 Chart
USD/JPY Remains Below 150
Initially acting as support, the 200-day SMA was broken, pushing USD/JPY below 150. This breach of a key level raises concerns about further downside potential as traders adjust their outlook. The pair had previously rallied from 140 in September to 159 in January, gaining nearly 20 cents, but momentum has now shifted, and USD/JPY has been steadily declining for over a month. Bitcoin continues to trade with muted movement after its sharp drop from record highs of nearly $100,000 at the end of 2024.
USD/JPY – Daily Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Breaks Below the 100 Daily SMA
On January 20, during Donald Trump’s inauguration, BTC/USD surged to $109,867 but struggled to maintain those gains. A steep selloff followed Trump’s tariff announcement in early February, sending BITCOIN below $90,000. Since then, the cryptocurrency has fluctuated between support at the 100-day SMA and resistance at the 50-day SMA. A decisive breakout above $100,000 would be needed to test January’s highs.
BTC/USD – Daily chart
Ethereum Returns in the Range
Ethereum has also faced significant selling pressure after surpassing $4,000 in late 2024. A flash crash on Monday briefly sent ETH below $2,000, cutting its value in half before it managed to recover some ground. Despite a bearish outlook, Ethereum has managed to hold above the critical $2,000 support level. If market sentiment improves, ETH could regain momentum and push toward higher price levels.
ETH/USD – Daily Chart
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