Gold Eyes Breakout Above $2,930 as Weak NFP Data Pressures U.S. Dollar

Gold is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern, signaling an imminent breakout.

With weaker-than-expected U.S. job data, the dollar is under pressure, increasing the likelihood of an upside move for gold.

The latest Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report revealed a 151K job increase, falling short of the 159K forecast. Additionally, the unemployment rate rose to 4.1%, surpassing market expectations of 4.0%. These indicators suggest the labor market is cooling, fueling speculation that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more dovish stance.

Gold, currently trading around $2,926, is hovering near a critical resistance level. A breakout above $2,930 could push prices toward $2,957 and $2,982, key resistance levels in the near term.

Why the Dollar Is Losing Ground

The U.S. dollar has been weakening in response to disappointing labor data:

• NFP Miss: The lower-than-expected 151K jobs added in February signals slower hiring.

• Rising Unemployment: At 4.1%, this is the highest unemployment rate in over a year, raising concerns about economic slowdown.

• Stagnant Wage Growth: Average hourly earnings remained at 0.3%, missing the previous month’s 0.4%, reducing inflationary pressures.

These figures suggest the Fed may pause or even cut interest rates sooner than expected, making gold a more attractive asset.

What’s Next for Gold Prices?

The technical outlook for gold remains bullish, with key levels to watch:

• Immediate Support: The 50-period EMA around $2,908 is providing a strong base.

• Breakout Zone: A decisive close above $2,930 could fuel a rally toward $2,957-$2,982.

• Bearish Scenario: If gold fails to hold support at $2,908, a retest of $2,878 is likely.

Traders should monitor upcoming Fed speeches and economic reports, as any further weakness in the dollar could propel gold higher. With the current macroeconomic backdrop, the probability of a bullish breakout remains high.