Crude Oil Slides 6% as OPEC+ Boosts Output by 411K Barrels Amid Trade Tensions

WTI crude oil futures tumbled to $66.31 on Friday, compounding a 6% plunge from the prior session.

The drop was triggered by a surprise move from OPEC+, as eight of its key members announced plans to boost production by 411,000 barrels per day in the upcoming month—almost triple market expectations. Analysts had forecast an increase of just 140,000 barrels per day.

OPEC+ labeled the hike “equivalent to three monthly increments,” while signaling flexibility to pause or reverse the decision depending on market response. The production boost comes at a time when the global energy market is grappling with heightened uncertainty due to rising geopolitical risks and softening demand outlooks.

Meanwhile, trade tensions escalated after U.S. President Donald Trump announced new tariffs midweek, prompting retaliatory measures from major economies. Although energy imports were not directly impacted, fears of a broader trade war and slower global growth have weighed on fuel demand expectations.

• OPEC+ to raise output by 411,000 barrels/day

• Hike exceeds forecast and could reverse if conditions change

• Global trade risks weigh on oil demand sentiment

WTI Crude Oil Technical Breakdown Signals More Downside

The recent price action in WTI crude reflects a decisive technical breakdown. After testing the $72.00 level earlier in the week, crude oil collapsed below key support at $68.97, breaching the lower edge of an upward trend channel. The drop to $66.31 leaves crude more than $6 off its recent highs, with momentum now clearly favoring the bears.

Price has also broken below the 50-period EMA at $69.27, reinforcing bearish control. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has plummeted to 25.50—deep in oversold territory—though this doesn’t necessarily indicate an imminent bounce. Until crude reclaims at least $68.97, further downside pressure is likely.

• WTI trades below $69.27 EMA, confirms trend shift

• RSI at 25.50 shows stretched conditions, but no reversal yet

• Next supports: $65.24 and $64.14

Oil Market Faces Growing Macro Headwinds

With oil down nearly 4% for the week, the market now turns its attention to macroeconomic developments that could shape crude’s next move. While supply fears have intensified due to OPEC+’s decision, demand-side risks tied to global trade uncertainty are equally prominent.

Investors are also closely watching for economic indicators, including the U.S. non-farm payrolls report, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path and, by extension, energy demand forecasts.

For now, the combination of rising supply and mounting macro risks sets a bearish tone for crude oil. Traders should prepare for continued volatility until there’s greater clarity on both the OPEC+ policy path and the trajectory of global growth.

Bottom Line: Unless WTI reclaims the $68.97 zone, the path of least resistance remains to the downside.