Forex Signals Brief April 4: Can the NFP End the Crash in the USD and Stocks?

Today NFP payrolls are expected to decline, increasing the odds of the FED cutting rates which would help the USD and stock markets.

Skerdian Meta•Friday, April 4, 2025•3 min read

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Today NFP payrolls are expected to decline, increasing the odds of the FED cutting rates which would help the USD and stock markets.

U.S. stock markets took a heavy hit yesterday, with a sharp drop in Treasury yields. This followed President Trump’s announcement of retaliatory tariffs on a wide range of countries, which triggered a notable decline in the U.S. dollar. The dollar fell most significantly against the Swiss franc, which saw a strong boost as investors rushed toward safe-haven assets. In fact, the USD lost 2.47% against the franc despite the U.S. imposing a hefty 31% tariff hike.

The Japanese yen also gained ground, even though Japan’s auto industry is likely to be affected due to its reliance on the U.S. market. The Nasdaq tumbled nearly 6%—one of the steepest single-day losses since 2015, apart from the early 2020 COVID crash. The S&P 500 dropped 5%, the Nasdaq lost 6%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 4%, closing at 40,545.93—its worst day since 2020.

Oil prices also collapsed after OPEC+ unexpectedly stated it would ramp up crude production faster than previously planned. Combined with concerns over a trade war and global slowdown, this dragged WTI crude oil down to $66.50, a 7.11% plunge, equivalent to a $5.10 drop.

Today’s Forex Events

The Canadian job report is expected to show a modest gain of 12,000 jobs for March, up from 1,100 in February, with a slight uptick in unemployment to 6.7%. However, any economic data might be overshadowed by developments on the U.S. tariff front. Positive tariff news could easily offset a weak labor report and vice versa.

In the U.S., nonfarm payrolls rose by 140,000 in March, slightly below February’s 151,000. Unemployment is expected to remain steady at 4.1%. Average hourly earnings year-over-year are seen at 3.9%, just below the previous 4.0%, while average weekly hours edged up to 34.2 from 34.1. The Federal Reserve has emphasized that the labor market remains steady and isn’t fueling inflation. Jobless claims remain in check, supporting that view.

The U.S. stock market and the dollar experienced reversals throughout the session, with extreme volatility dominating trading activity. As a result, we executed 37 trading signals this week, with 25 wins and 12 losses, navigating the unpredictable market swings.

Gold Dips $120 but Buyers Jump In Again

Despite ongoing uncertainties, gold is holding a strong upward trend. After briefly dipping below $3,000, buyers stepped in near the 50-day moving average to push prices back up, with demand surging again on safe-haven buying. Gold prices initially surged to a record $3,167 following the tariff news but then fell sharply by $120 before rebounding. Chart XAUUSD, D1, 2025.04.04 02:16 UTC, MetaQuotes Ltd., MetaTrader 5, Demo

XAU/USD – Daily Chart

USD/CHF Tumbles 3 Cents Lower

The USD/CHF pair has seen more volatility due to the fluctuating risk appetite in markets. Early in the week, the dollar strengthened, sending USD/CHF above 0.8850, but it reversed after hitting resistance at the 100-day moving average, eventually slipping about 3 cents amid a broader risk-off move. Chart USDCHF, D1, 2025.04.04 02:14 UTC, MetaQuotes Ltd., MetaTrader 5, Demo

USD/CHF – Daily Chart

Cryptocurrency Update

Bitcoin Stays Above $80K

Bitcoin rallied midweek, climbing $5,000 as investors reacted to more dovish signals from the Fed, but it ran into selling pressure near its 20-day moving average. A break below the 200-day average further dampened risk sentiment, suggesting more downside ahead.

BTC/USD – Daily chart

Ripple XRP Slips Below $2 But Returns Above It Again

In the crypto space, Ripple (XRP) briefly jumped to $2.98 in early March after President Trump mentioned digital assets while discussing the proposed National Crypto Reserve. The excitement faded quickly once it became clear that XRP, Solana, and Cardano wouldn’t be included. XRP fell below $2, found support at $1.90, and managed a modest bounce to $2.07 by Saturday. Overall, the tone in the crypto market remains cautious, reflecting broader economic concerns.

XRP/USD – Daily Chart

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Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.