Forex Signals April 23: DJIA Bullish Open on Trade Deal Optimism?

A volatile week saw gold, equities, and cryptocurrencies swing sharply on political shifts, so we expect a bullish open in DJIA today,

Skerdian Meta•Wednesday, April 23, 2025•4 min read

The USD and stocks gained on trade deal comments

Quick overview

Gold, equities, and cryptocurrencies experienced significant volatility due to political shifts and changing investor sentiment, leading to a bullish outlook for the DJIA.
U.S. equities rebounded sharply, with major indices gaining over 2.5% after positive comments from President Trump regarding trade relations with China.
Gold prices surged nearly $500 in two weeks but faced resistance and pulled back as trade tensions eased, highlighting market sensitivity to geopolitical developments.
In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin recovered to $93,000 amid positive sentiment, while XRP showed resilience by maintaining key support levels.

A volatile week saw gold, equities, and cryptocurrencies swing sharply on political shifts and investor sentiment, so we expect a bullish open for DJIA.

Markets Rebound Sharply as Trade Optimism and Dovish Central Bank Signals Lift Sentiment

Thursday saw a dramatic shift in investor sentiment as risk appetite returned in force. Just a day after widespread selling hit U.S. markets, equities, commodities, and cryptocurrencies rebounded sharply, buoyed by a softer tone from central banks, renewed hopes of trade de-escalation, and optimistic remarks from U.S. political leaders.

U.S. Equities Surge, Erasing Prior Losses

After a sharp sell-off earlier in the week, U.S. stocks roared back to life, with all major indices posting gains of more than 2.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 2.66%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.51% and 2.71% respectively. This dramatic turnaround was further fueled in after-hours trading, following President Trump’s unexpectedly upbeat comments regarding future relations with China. His remarks sparked a wave of buying across the board, adding momentum to a session that had already seen substantial recovery.

Yields Diverge Across the Curve, Dollar Firms

Bond markets displayed a more nuanced picture, with yields moving unevenly across the curve. The 2-year yield surged to 3.82%, up nearly seven basis points, reflecting a market still cautious about near-term monetary policy. In contrast, the 10-year yield edged slightly lower, and the 30-year slipped more noticeably by 2.6 basis points. A 2-year Treasury auction struggled to find buyers, ending with a modest tail of 0.6 basis points above the when-issued level, indicating a somewhat messy sale.

Nonetheless, the tone in fixed income markets improved later in the day after Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that he expected de-escalation in trade tensions with China in the very near term. His comments, along with news of intensified U.S. trade talks with partners like Australia, Japan, South Korea, and India, helped firm up the U.S. dollar and boost investor confidence.

Today’s Market Outlook

Today we have the manufacturing and services data from around the globe, which will show if trade uncertainty has affected production. Anyway, markets are on positive mode after comment about trade agreements from the White House, which will likely keep stock markets bullish today.

April 2025 Flash Manufacturing PMI Snapshot

France:
– Flash Manufacturing PMI at 44.6
– Slightly better than expected but still in contraction territory
Germany:
– Manufacturing PMI at 42.2 vs 42.8 expected
– Ongoing weakness in the sector despite services showing strength
Eurozone:
– Composite PMI rose to 51.4, highest in nearly a year
– Manufacturing output still shrinking but at a slower pace
UK:
– Flash Manufacturing PMI fell to 48.7
– Signals contraction in the sector, with weak demand and production
US:
– April manufacturing PMI data not yet released
– Market watching for cues on US factory activity

April’s PMI data underscores a continued divergence between the manufacturing and services sectors globally. While services show signs of resilience and are driving modest economic recoveries in regions like the Eurozone and Germany, manufacturing sectors in several countries remain under pressure, with the sector being in recession since Covid lockdowns in 2020. The anticipated release of US manufacturing data will provide further insights into whether this trend is consistent across major economies.

Last week, markets were chaotic, with gold soaring $250 in the final three days, the EUR/USD surging 5 cents, and stock markets opening down before turning upward. The moves were big, and the volatility was enormous, so we opened 40 trading signals in total, finishing the week with 25 winning signals and 15 losing ones.

Gold’s Historic Rally Meets Resistance

Gold continued to attract attention following its most explosive two-week gain in history, with prices surging nearly $500 as geopolitical stress and rate cut expectations lifted safe haven demand. Spot gold briefly broke through previous records to touch $3,357 and then $3,444, driven largely by dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Markets interpreted his tone as signaling up to 90 basis points of rate cuts by the end of the year, possibly starting as early as June or July. However, the rally lost steam just shy of the psychological $3,500 barrier. As trade headlines turned more constructive and fears eased, gold reversed course and fell sharply to $3,312. The pullback underlined how sensitive sentiment remains to the shifting tone of global diplomacy. Chart XAUUSD, H1, 2025.04.22 23:12 UTC, MetaQuotes Ltd., MetaTrader 5, Demo

XAU/USD – Daily Chart

EUR/USD Rises, Then Retreats Amid Choppy Dollar Moves

The euro had a strong start to the session, climbing to 1.1572 against the dollar despite the European Central Bank having delivered a rate cut. The move reflected growing market conviction that the U.S. dollar might remain under pressure for some time, particularly as the Fed edges closer to easing.

Yet by late afternoon, those gains had evaporated. A broad rebound in the greenback, driven by improving trade rhetoric and a slight calming in markets, saw EUR/USD tumble below 1.13. Traders are now questioning whether the euro can hold ground above the 1.10 level in the near term, as dollar demand reasserts itself on improving geopolitical prospects.

EUR/USD – H4 Chart

Cryptocurrency Update

Bitcoin Swings But Holds Key Levels

Bitcoin was no exception to the broader mood swings in markets. After briefly dipping below $75,000 and touching its 50-week moving average, the world’s largest cryptocurrency found its footing. Positive sentiment from former President Trump’s pro-growth commentary spilled over into digital assets, helping Bitcoin recover and regain the $93,000 level. Now facing resistance at its 20-week simple moving average, Bitcoin remains in a tug-of-war between bullish risk-on flows and lingering macro uncertainty.

BTC/USD – Daily chart

XRP Shows Strength in a Volatile Crypto Market

Among cryptocurrencies, Ripple’s XRP stood out for its relative stability. The token managed to defend a series of key psychological and technical support levels—including $1.80, $2.00, and $2.20—with help from its 200-day moving average.

XRP’s resilience has not gone unnoticed. As investor confidence slowly returns to the crypto sector, XRP led a modest recovery across the board, successfully reclaiming the $2.20 mark by midweek and attracting fresh attention from market participants. XRP/USD – Daily Chart

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.