Bitcoin Defies FOMC Pressure: Risk-Off Signal Hints at Major Rally
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading above the $96,000 barrier, reflecting a rise of over 2.4% in the past 24 hours, as the crypto market waits for the
Quick overview
- Bitcoin is currently trading above $96,000, reflecting a 2.4% increase in the last 24 hours as the market anticipates the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate announcement.
- The Bitcoin Risk-Off indicator has reached its lowest level ever, historically signaling potential for significant bull runs.
- Strong support at $94,500 is being defended by aggressive bulls, with a notable increase in futures market activity indicating high purchasing demand.
- Multiple indicators suggest Bitcoin could break above $100,000 soon, bolstered by institutional adoption and favorable macroeconomic conditions.
Bitcoin BTC/USD is trading above the $96,000 barrier, reflecting a rise of over 2.4% in the past 24 hours, as the crypto market waits for the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement on May 7th. Despite anticipation of near-term turbulence, underlying macro fundamentals, increased institutional interest, and multiple bullish technical signals imply that Bitcoin might continue its upward trend, potentially rallying regardless of the immediate Fed decision.
Historic Risk-Off Signal Suggests Major Upside Potential for BTC
Since Bitcoin traded at just $4,000 in March 2019, the Bitcoin Risk-Off indicator has plunged to 23.7, its lowest level ever. This statistic, which incorporates volatility data, exchange inflows, funding rates, futures interest, and market capitalization, has historically anticipated large bull runs. Bitcoin then recovered 1,550% to over $68,000 by 2021 after previous time this indicator reached such lows.
Strong Support at $94,500 Defended by Aggressive Bulls
Like trends driving Bitcoin to $97,500 in late April, on-chain data suggests a cluster of long bets emerging around $94,400 in the futures market. Despite recent volatility, Bitcoin futures open interest has climbed by about $189 million in recent hours, along with a 15% rise in trading volume suggesting significant purchasing demand.
Why Today’s FOMC Decision Could Be a Catalyst Regardless of Outcome
Based on historical trends, Bitcoin’s velocity usually slows before FOMC meetings then becomes more erratic afterwards. Whether the Fed keeps rates the same or signals further easing, a number of elements help to create a positive atmosphere for Bitcoin:
- The US Dollar Index has dropped below 100 for the first time since July 2023
- Gold has risen over 12% in the past month, approaching all-time highs
- Treasury futures indicate a 76% probability of lower interest rates by September
According to economist Jim Paulsen, present Fed fund levels usually presage economic slowdowns, therefore either rate cuts or liquidity injections, both of which might be favorable for Bitcoin as a substitute store of value.
Bitcoin Mining Industry Adapts to Post-Halving Economics
The mining industry keeps adjusting to lower block payouts after the halving event in April 2024. Recently selling 475 Bitcoin valued $38.8 million at an average price of $81,731 per, Riot Platform is the second-largest publicly traded Bitcoin miner. CEO Jason Les said this was a calculated action to fund operations and lower shareholder dilution.
Riot shows significant reserves among tactical changes even with these sales by keeping 19,211 Bitcoin (value about $1.8 billion) on its balance sheet.
Bitcoin Price Prediction: Path to $100,000 Strengthens
Multiple indicators suggest Bitcoin is positioned to potentially break above $100,000 in the coming weeks. The Macro Chain Index recently flashed a buy signal for the first time since correctly predicting 2022’s market bottom at $15,500.
Although network activity has dropped since December, a reflection of lower transaction volume and fewer active addresses, macro indicators remain rather positive. Reduced volatility of Bitcoin clearly shows its maturing; 1-year realized volatility dropped 80% between 2019 and 2025.
With ETFs and public businesses already holding 9% of Bitcoin’s supply, the leading crypto seems more suited to profit from global economic turmoil as institutional adoption expands and keeps developing into a mainstream financial asset.
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