EUR/USD Price Forecast: 1.1470 in Sight—Can Bulls Outrun Tariff Worries?

Quick overview

Markets are on hold as US tariff threats return to center stage. The 90 day window for announcing “reciprocal tariffs” is almost up and while some trade deal headlines have emerged, nothing is concrete. Investors want clarity to remove the tariff cloud over the US and global economy.

European policymakers are tied up in G7 meetings and offering no new input to calm nerves. While sentiment is generally positive, the lack of clarity on trade and tariffs is starting to get old. Until there’s a decision from Washington, markets are vulnerable to policy surprises.

Today’s key events:

• G7 meetings

• German 10-year bond auction (yield 2.47%)

• ECB Financial Stability Review (Day 2)

• Fed speakers Barkin and Bowman

Market calm before US PMI storm

No major data today, so attention turns to Thursday’s US PMI. Economists expect a slight dip in manufacturing from 50.2 to 50.1 and services to hold at 50.8. Not blockbuster data but PMIs are watched for early signs of economic momentum or weakness as the Fed dithers on rate cuts.

In the eurozone, sentiment improved slightly with German PPI -0.6% (vs -0.3%) and consumer confidence up to -15 from -17. The Euro briefly rallied but overall direction is tied to US data and global risk appetite.

EUR/USD Analysis – Target 1.1470

The EUR/USD is on a tear, up sharply from the May lows around 1.1130 and now above 1.1330. The move was driven by a clean break above 1.1295 and reclamation of the 50-period EMA at 1.1239 – both bullish signals.

Price is in an ascending channel on the 2-hour chart, with a series of higher highs and higher lows. The MACD is confirming the trend with a bullish crossover and expanding green bars – clear signs of momentum.

Key levels:

• Support: 1.1295, 1.1239 (EMA), 1.1177

• Resistance: 1.1377, 1.1425, 1.1470

Trade Setup (Bullish):

• Entry: Pullback to 1.1295 or above 1.1377

• Stop Loss: 1.1239

• Targets: 1.1377, 1.1425, 1.1470

Momentum is with the bulls for now but as always be aware of RSI divergence or reversal candles at the channel top. Tariffs are still a risk and US data can change the narrative quickly.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Arslan Butt

Index & Commodity Analyst

Arslan Butt serves as the Lead Commodities and Indices Analyst, bringing a wealth of expertise to the field. With an MBA in Behavioral Finance and active progress towards a Ph.D., Arslan possesses a deep understanding of market dynamics. His professional journey includes a significant role as a senior analyst at a leading brokerage firm, complementing his extensive experience as a market analyst and day trader. Adept in educating others, Arslan has a commendable track record as an instructor and public speaker. His incisive analyses, particularly within the realms of cryptocurrency and forex markets, are showcased across esteemed financial publications such as ForexCrunch, InsideBitcoins, and EconomyWatch, solidifying his reputation in the financial community.

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