MTN Share Price Peaks, Then Slips 10% as Nigeria Shines but MTN South Africa Lags
MTN Group (JSE: MTN) entered 2025 with powerful momentum, posting remarkable gains and signaling a recovery from years of underperformance..
Quick overview
- MTN Group started 2025 with significant momentum, achieving an 87% increase in share price before a sharp 9% decline post earnings report.
- The company's strong performance was driven by impressive growth in Nigeria and Ghana, contrasting with sluggish results in South Africa.
- Despite a return to profitability and increased service revenue, investor sentiment remains cautious due to regional disparities in performance.
- MTN's focus on reinvestment and operational discipline will be key to maintaining investor confidence amid market volatility.
MTN Group (JSE: MTN) entered 2025 with powerful momentum, posting remarkable gains and signaling a recovery from years of underperformance. Yet, despite delivering solid half-year results, the stock’s latest performance revealed how uneven regional growth and investor caution can quickly reverse sentiment.
Market Momentum and Recent Volatility
MTN’s shares climbed an impressive 87% by late last week, hitting a peak of R173.9. The surge reflected not only robust earnings but also improved investor confidence and a broad technical recovery in the share price. However, the optimism didn’t last. Following the release of its half-year report, the stock retreated sharply, falling 9% on Monday to settle near R157.
MTNJ Share Price Chart Weekly – Investors Looking at MAs for Support Again
This reversal highlights the delicate balance between strong group results and investor perception of risk in key markets. Traders appear concerned that MTN’s regional performance, though encouraging in some areas, shows stark contrasts between fast-growing and mature markets.
Regional Performance: Diverging Paths
- MTN Nigeria was the standout performer. After struggling with currency fluctuations for several quarters, it recorded a striking 54% increase in service revenue, restoring investor confidence in what is arguably MTN’s most critical growth engine.
- MTN Ghana also impressed, with H1 2025 profit after tax posting significant gains, reinforcing the West African growth story.
- By contrast, MTN South Africa underscored the challenges of mature, competitive markets. Service revenue edged up just 2.3%, weighed down by slowing prepaid voice demand and intensifying price competition.
The contrast between Nigeria and Ghana’s vibrant growth versus South Africa’s sluggish momentum likely spooked investors, adding to the pressure on the share price despite strong overall results.
Financial Recovery and Execution
The first half of 2025 marked a dramatic turnaround for MTN at the group level. After reporting a 256-cent loss in H1 2024, the company delivered headline earnings per share (HEPS) of 645 cents. This recovery highlights improved execution, tighter cost discipline, and a more supportive macroeconomic backdrop.
Group service revenue grew 23.2% to R105.1 billion ($5.6 billion), while operational momentum in data and fintech reinforced MTN’s positioning as Africa’s leading digital services provider. The group also upgraded its medium-term guidance and expects MTN Nigeria’s net asset value to swing positive by the third quarter.
Despite these advances, MTN opted not to declare an interim dividend, underscoring management’s focus on reinvestment and balance sheet resilience.
MTN Group – Financial Results for H1 2025
Company Overview
- MTN is a pan-African mobile operator with operations in 16 markets.
- Serves 298 million customers.
- Strategic goal: “Leading digital solutions for Africa’s progress.”
- Focus: Expanding access to modern, connected digital services.
Key Messages – First Half 2025
- Strong overall performance driven by commercial execution, disciplined capital allocation, and improving macroeconomic conditions.
- Service revenue growth of 22.4% (constant currency), led by MTN Nigeria and MTN Ghana.
- Fintech expansion: transaction value grew +45.4%.
- Positive net asset value expected in MTN Nigeria by Q3 2025.
- Upgraded medium-term guidance, reflecting stronger-than-expected results.
Financial & Operational Highlights
- Service revenue: R105.1 billion (+23.2% reported; +22.4% constant currency).
- Data revenue: +36.5% reported; +34.3% CC.
- Fintech revenue: +37.3% reported; +24.9% CC.
- EBITDA (before once-offs): +60.6% reported; +42.3% CC.
- EBITDA margin: rose to 42.7% (+10.7pp reported; +7.1pp CC).
- EPS: 539 cents profit (vs 409 cents loss in H1 2024).
- Headline EPS (HEPS): 645 cents profit (vs 256 cents loss in H1 2024).
- Dividend: No interim dividend declared (same as H1 2024).
Subscriber & Usage Growth
- Total subscribers: +4.7% to 297.7 million.
- Active data subscribers: +10.3% to 164.4 million.
- Data traffic: +29.1% to 11.7 petabytes.
- Mobile Money (MoMo) users: +1.7% to 63.2 million.
- Fintech transaction volumes: +14.5% to 11.1 billion.
Investment & Capex
- Capex (ex-leases): R20.8 billion.
- Capex intensity: 19.0%, reflecting sustained investment in network and fintech infrastructure.
Share Price History and Broader Market Backdrop
MTN’s recovery did not start overnight. After a prolonged slump from 2022 into early 2024, the company began to stabilize late last year. By March 2025, shares had rallied from a low of R71 to R127, driven by improving fundamentals and strong quarterly results.
This rebound occurred even against a backdrop of global uncertainty, marked by trade tensions and retaliatory tariffs from the U.S. Though a sharp selloff hit the broader market in early March, MTN’s stock found support at key technical levels before resuming its upward climb through summer.
The earnings report, however, disrupted this narrative. Despite stronger-than-expected group-level results, investor skepticism over regional disparities quickly weighed on the stock, cutting its recent highs and reminding markets of the risks embedded in MTN’s multi-country portfolio.
Conclusion
MTN’s first half of 2025 reflects a company on the mend, with surging revenue, a return to profitability, and momentum in both data and fintech services. Nigeria and Ghana are proving to be growth pillars, while South Africa remains a drag on overall performance. The sharp pullback in share price after strong earnings illustrates the fragility of investor sentiment when regional imbalances emerge.
Looking ahead, MTN’s ability to maintain operational discipline, execute on fintech expansion, and sustain growth in Nigeria will be crucial in keeping investor confidence intact. For now, the group remains on stronger footing than a year ago, but the divergence across markets suggests the rally may remain volatile.
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