Gold Hits $3,546 Record: 92% Fed-Cut Odds Fuel Safe-Haven Rush
Gold’s latest surge isn’t happening in a vacuum. Spot prices touched an all-time high near $3,546/oz before easing slightly...
Quick overview
- Gold prices recently reached an all-time high near $3,546/oz, driven by safe-haven inflows amid expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut.
- Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust increased to the highest level since August 2022, indicating a shift from dip-buying to trend-following among traders.
- Technical analysis shows gold is in a bullish trend, with key support levels at $3,510 and resistance at $3,546, while overbought conditions suggest caution.
- The overall market environment remains favorable for gold, supported by geopolitical risks and strong ETF demand.
Gold’s latest surge isn’t happening in a vacuum. Spot prices touched an all-time high near $3,546/oz before easing slightly, while December futures briefly climbed above $3,603.
The rally reflects a wave of safe-haven inflows as traders price in a 92% chance of a 25 basis-point Fed cut at the September 17 meeting. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust jumped 1.32% to 990.56 tons, the highest since August 2022—evidence that dip-buyers have turned into trend followers. Political uncertainty, tariff disputes, and open pressure on the Federal Reserve add another layer of support for bullion.
Gold Key levels and chart signals
On the 2-hour chart, gold has been riding a clean ascending channel since mid-August, posting higher lows above the 50-SMA near $3,458 and the 200-SMA around $3,376. The breakout over $3,510 confirmed bullish control, followed by a three-bar advance resembling three white soldiers, a classic continuation pattern.
As price reached $3,546, candlesticks narrowed into spinning tops with short wicks, signaling hesitation at resistance. The RSI hovering around 70 points to overbought conditions with early signs of bearish divergence, as momentum flattens despite higher prices. The MACD remains positive, but shrinking histogram bars suggest momentum could cool before another leg higher.
What to watch next:
- Support at $3,510 → $3,471 → $3,458 (50-SMA)
- Resistance at $3,546 → $3,574 → $3,604
- A close above $3,546 confirms continuation
- A drop below $3,510 risks a pullback toward $3,470
Gold (XAU/USD) Trade risks and next moves
Technically, the path of least resistance still points upward, but timing is crucial with momentum stretched. A pullback-and-bounce setup would be healthier than chasing a breakout at overbought RSI levels. Traders should look for confirmation in the form of a bullish engulfing candle or a new series of higher-low closes near support.
If gold clears $3,546 with strong volume, the next upside targets sit at $3,574 and $3,604. Failure to defend $3,510 could bring a retest of $3,471–$3,458, where the 50-SMA and prior breakout zone are likely to attract buyers.
The broader backdrop remains supportive—expectations of Fed cuts, sticky geopolitical risk, and persistent ETF demand keep dips shallow and rallies sharp. For disciplined traders, this consolidation near record highs may be less of an end point and more of a launching pad for gold’s next advance.
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