Forex Signals Sept 22: Markets Await PCE Besides Micron MU and Costco COST Earnings

This week is packed with central bank updates and critical economic releases, with special attention on the U.S. PCE inflation report...

Written by: Skerdian Meta • Sunday, September 21, 2025 • 4 min read

• Last updated: Sunday, September 21, 2025

Quick overview

This week features significant central bank updates and the crucial U.S. PCE inflation report, which is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve.
The Federal Reserve's recent 25 basis point rate cut has led to mixed market reactions, with bonds and currencies showing a hawkish bias while equities, particularly small caps, have performed well.
Commodities experienced volatility, with oil prices declining and gold rebounding by the end of the week amid ongoing safe-haven demand.
Key economic data releases this week, especially the U.S. PCE report, are expected to influence market sentiment and asset prices.

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This week is packed with central bank updates and critical economic releases, with special attention on the U.S. PCE inflation report — a metric closely followed by the Federal Reserve to gauge policy direction.

Fed Decision Sets the Tone for Markets

Last week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) took the spotlight. A 25 basis point rate cut brought mixed reactions across asset classes, with bonds and currencies leaning hawkish while equities displayed resilience.

Bonds and Currency Show Hawkish Bias

The Fed framed the move as a “risk management” adjustment, which led to heavy selling in U.S. Treasuries and a less dovish yield curve. The U.S. dollar gained strongly, particularly against the Japanese yen, which briefly dipped to 1.4550 before bouncing back toward 1.48.

The pound also came under pressure after dovish remarks from Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, adding to the dollar’s upward momentum.

Equities Defy Caution, Led by Small Caps

Stocks told a different story. U.S. indices pushed higher, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 reaching record highs. The Russell 2000 outperformed with a 2.5% jump, signaling renewed appetite for rate-sensitive small-cap stocks. This strength reflects the ongoing “buy-the-dip” mentality that has shaped market behavior since April.

A standout move came from Intel, which soared 25% after news broke of Nvidia’s $5 billion investment. The stock retained most of those gains into the close, highlighting investor enthusiasm for AI-driven semiconductor partnerships.

Commodities Retreat, Then Rebound

Commodities cooled as oil prices fell and gold softened midweek. Reports that former President Trump urged European leaders to scale back LNG imports—while sparing crude oil from immediate reductions—added fresh uncertainty to energy markets, heightening geopolitical risk.

Gold, however, regained momentum by Friday, reinforcing its strong long-term uptrend and underlining persistent safe-haven demand.

Global Data Watch: Key Events Driving Markets This Week

Markets will likely trade sideways until Friday, when U.S. PCE data could set the tone for risk assets, bond yields, and the dollar. Traders will treat the release as the week’s decisive event, with ripple effects across global markets.

Monday

PBoC Loan Prime Rate decision
Eurozone Consumer Confidence Flash (September)

Tuesday

Riksbank policy announcement
Flash PMIs for Eurozone, UK, and US (September)

Wednesday

Australian CPI (August)
German Ifo Business Climate Survey (September)

Thursday

Swiss National Bank policy meeting
Bank of Japan meeting minutes
PBoC Medium-Term Lending Facility
German GfK Consumer Sentiment (October)
U.S. Durable Goods Orders (August)
U.S. Q2 GDP revision

Friday

Japanese Tokyo CPI (September)
U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Final (September)
U.S. PCE (August) – the most important release of the week

Why PCE Matters

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. With markets still digesting the Fed’s latest policy tone, a stronger-than-expected reading could reduce expectations for further rate cuts, while a softer print might strengthen the case for a more dovish shift.

Markets Earnings to Watch This Week

Micron Technology (MU)

Q4 2025 earnings release
Scheduled after market close (AMC)
EPS expected: $2.86

Costco Wholesale (COST)

Q4 2025 earnings release
Scheduled after market close (AMC)
EPS expected: $5.82

BlackBerry (BB)

Q2 2026 earnings release
Scheduled before market open (BMO)
EPS expected: $0.01Brace for U.S. PCE Amid Busy Global Calendar”

Forex Signals Update

Last week, markets were quite volatile again, with gold soaring to $3,6065. EUR/USD continued the upward move toward 1.17.80, while main indices closed higher again. The moves weren’t too big though, and we opened 35 trading signals in total, finishing the week with 23 winning signals and 12 losing ones.

Gold Rebounds Strongly on Friday

Although demand for safe haven assets is still high, gold fell precipitously from record highs following the Fed’s most recent rate decrease as profit-taking was prompted by Powell’s cautious tone. Earlier this week, gold jumped beyond $3,700 and reached $3,707.42 following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25 basis point rate decrease to 4.25%. But the impetus soon waned, and prices dropped back to $3,627, a $80 decline from the new all-time high. As traders locked in profits after the rally driven by dovish predictions, there was a sudden fall but buyers returned on Friday pushing the price $60 higher.

XAU/USD – Daily Chart

USD/JPY Continues Trading in the Range

Foreign exchange markets saw sharp swings. Early in the week, U.S. yield differentials and Japanese capital outflows pushed the dollar above ¥150, but disappointing U.S. jobs data triggered profit-taking, causing the USD/JPY to slide by four yen from its peak. The move underscored persistent volatility as traders weighed Japan’s intervention risks against evolving Fed expectations.

USD/JPY – Weekly Chart

Cryptocurrency Update

Bitcoin Continues the Rebound Off the 20 SMA

Cryptocurrencies remained highly active over the summer. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh highs of $123,000 and $124,000 in July and August, supported by institutional inflows and technical strength. However, remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruling out U.S. increases to BTC reserves triggered a steep pullback, sending the coin down to $113,000 before recovering above $116,000 last week, however sellers returned and sent BTC below $110,000, however we saw a rebound off the 20 weekly SMA (gray) yesterday.

BTC/USD – Weekly chart

Ethereum Climbs Above $4,500

Ethereum (ETH) has been similarly strong, surging toward $4,800, its highest since 2021 and near its all-time peak of $4,860. Despite a dip last week, ETH found support at the 20-day SMA, with retail enthusiasm and renewed institutional participation driving fresh upside momentum. However buying resumed and on Sunday ETH/USD printed another record at $4,941. However we saw a retreat to $,000 lows over the weekend, but yesterday buyers returned.

ETH/USD – Daily Chart

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR See More

Skerdian Meta

Lead Analyst

Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.