XAU/USD – Daily Chart
Forex Signals Sept 26: US PCE Inflation to Test Fed’s Patience on Policy Outlook
Today's US PCE report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, will provide critical insight into whether price pressures are...
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Last updated: Thursday, September 25, 2025
Quick overview
- Today's US PCE report will be crucial in assessing ongoing inflation trends as the year ends.
- Recent US economic data indicates resilience, with existing home sales and durable goods orders showing positive signs.
- Gold prices experienced volatility following the Fed's rate decrease, while Bitcoin and Ethereum faced significant pullbacks after reaching recent highs.
- The USD/JPY currency pair demonstrated sharp fluctuations amid changing market sentiments and intervention risks.
Today’s US PCE report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, will provide critical insight into whether price pressures are easing or persisting into year-end.
Strong US Data Sets Market Tone
Yesterday we had a wave of upbeat US economic reports shaped market sentiment, showing resilience across key areas of the economy.
Housing: Signs of Stabilization
Existing home sales came in at 4.00m (vs 3.96m expected), down -0.2% m/m but better than feared. Prices rose 2.0% y/y, and inventory climbed 11.7% y/y. The sector looks to be bottoming, though the rebound appears gradual rather than sharp.
Trade and Inventories: Deficit Narrows, Restocking Soft
The goods trade deficit narrowed to -$85.5B (vs -$95.2B expected), largely reversing tariff distortions. Wholesale inventories slipped -0.2% in August, led by nondurables, highlighting slower restocking momentum.
Durable Goods: A Major Upside Surprise
Orders jumped +2.9% (vs -0.5% expected), with core capital goods up +0.6%. The rebound signals firmer investment demand after months of weak prints.
GDP and Labor: Stronger Growth, Resilient Jobs
Q2 GDP was revised up to +3.8%, with consumer spending and final sales both stronger. Initial jobless claims fell to 218K (vs 235K expected), keeping claims near the low end of their 2025 range.
Data in Focus Today
Tokyo CPI (Friday)
Tokyo CPI will be closely watched before the BoJ’s October 30 meeting. Governor Ueda has flagged food prices as a short-term factor but stressed inflation is gradually approaching 2%, with household expectations in focus.
US PCE (Friday)
Core PCE is expected between 0.28–0.35% m/m (vs 0.27% in July). Powell suggested August headline PCE will be 2.7% y/y, with core near 2.9%. The Fed still projects inflation returning to target in 2028, though tariffs may keep upward pressure into 2026.
Last week, markets were quite volatile again, with gold soaring to $3,6065. EUR/USD continued the upward move toward 1.17.80, while main indices closed higher again. The moves weren’t too big though, and we opened 35 trading signals in total, finishing the week with 23 winning signals and 12 losing ones.
Gold Consolidates After the Pullback
Although demand for safe haven assets is still high, gold fell precipitously from record highs following the Fed’s most recent rate decrease as profit-taking was prompted by Powell’s cautious tone. Earlier this week, gold jumped beyond $3,700 and reached $3,707.42 following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25 basis point rate decrease to 4.25%. But the impetus soon waned, and prices dropped back to $3,627, a $80 decline from the new all-time high. As traders locked in profits after the rally driven by dovish predictions, there was a sudden fall but buyers returned on Friday pushing the price $60 higher. Yesterday buyers continued to push and XAU reached another record high at $3,791 before retreating yesterday.
USD/JPY Continues Trading in the Range
Foreign exchange markets saw sharp swings. Early in the week, U.S. yield differentials and Japanese capital outflows pushed the dollar above ¥150, but disappointing U.S. jobs data triggered profit-taking, causing the USD/JPY to slide by four yen from its peak. The move underscored persistent volatility as traders weighed Japan’s intervention risks against evolving Fed expectations.
USD/JPY – Weekly Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Returns Below $110K
Cryptocurrencies remained highly active over the summer. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh highs of $123,000 and $124,000 in July and August, supported by institutional inflows and technical strength. However, remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruling out U.S. increases to BTC reserves triggered a steep pullback, sending the coin down to $113,000 before recovering above $116,000 last week, however sellers returned and sent BTC below $110,000, breaking the 20 weekly SMA (gray) as well.
BTC/USD – Weekly chart
Ethereum Falls Below $4,o00 Again
Ethereum (ETH) has been similarly strong, surging toward $4,800, its highest since 2021 and near its all-time peak of $4,860. Despite a dip last week, ETH found support at the 20-day SMA, with retail enthusiasm and renewed institutional participation driving fresh upside momentum. However buying resumed and on Sunday ETH/USD printed another record at $4,941 but we saw a retreat which sent ETH below $4,000 yesterday.
ETH/USD – Daily Chart
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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