XAU/USD – Daily Chart
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Forex Signals Sept 30: RBA Holds Rates at 3.6% as Nike Releases Earnings
The Australian central bank meets today with rates likely to remain unchanged, while Nike releases earnings later in the day.
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Last updated: Tuesday, September 30, 2025
Quick overview
- The Australian central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.6% amid a softening labor market and inflation within target range.
- The US dollar started the week weaker, influenced by a short squeeze and declining oil prices, while stock markets showed solid gains led by tech stocks.
- Gold prices have surged, reaching $3,843 per ounce, driven by renewed demand and speculation about a potential move toward $4,000.
- Bitcoin and Ethereum have experienced volatility, with Bitcoin dropping below $110,000 and Ethereum fluctuating around $4,000 after reaching highs near $4,800.
Live BTC/USD Chart
BTC/USD
MARKETS TREND
The Australian central bank meets today with rates likely to remain unchanged, while Nike releases earnings later in the day.
USD Starts the Week on a Softer Footing
The US dollar opened the week weaker, not because of fresh headlines but largely due to last week’s short squeeze in USD sellers running out of steam. That reversal coincided with stronger stock markets and fading concerns over US inflation as oil prices slid nearly 4%.
Some of the USD softness may also have reflected month-end flows, while the decline in oil was partly linked to reports that OPEC may raise production at its next meeting. Traders had also reacted late last week to US military chatter regarding Venezuela and a high-profile meeting of generals in Virginia — a storyline that ultimately fizzled out, allowing the prior moves in markets to unwind.
Stocks and Gold Show Diverging Paths
Equities opened the session with solid gains led by tech stocks, though the rally lacked resilience. The S&P 500 briefly dipped back toward flat before managing a modest gain by the close.
Gold, meanwhile, continued its upward march, benefiting from renewed USD selling and stronger bond bids. European investors in particular drove demand, lifting prices to $3,833 per ounce before some early US-session profit-taking gave way to another wave of buying. At this pace, analysts are increasingly speculating about a move toward $4,000 in the not-too-distant future.
Data in Focus Today
RBA Expected to Keep Rates Unchanged
The spotlight today is on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), which is widely expected to leave its cash rate at 3.6%. While August’s stronger-than-expected inflation print adds a cautious undertone to the central bank’s statement, policymakers are not seen rushing into further hikes.
The RBA still anticipates rate cuts ahead, but the timing has become less clear. Westpac continues to forecast cuts in November, February, and May, though it now acknowledges the risk of a slower or delayed easing cycle.
Balancing Inflation with a Softening Labour Market
Analysts have largely downplayed the inflation surprise and recent geopolitical developments as temporary influences on prices. Instead, they highlight a softening labour market, evidenced by slower job creation and falling vacancies.
With inflation within the target range and the economy near full employment, the RBA is expected to avoid premature easing but also to steer clear of keeping policy overly restrictive for too long.
NIKE, Inc. (NKE)
- Report: Q1 2026 earnings, scheduled after market close (AMC).
- Consensus EPS Estimate: $0.27 per share.
Paychex, Inc. (PAYX)
- Report: Q1 2026 earnings, scheduled before market open (BMO).
- Consensus EPS Estimate: $1.20 per share.
Last week, markets were quite volatile again, with gold soaring to $3,6065. EUR/USD continued the upward move toward 1.17.80, while main indices closed higher again. The moves weren’t too big though, and we opened 35 trading signals in total, finishing the week with 23 winning signals and 12 losing ones.
Gold Consolidates After the Pullback
Although demand for safe haven assets is still high, gold fell precipitously from record highs following the Fed’s most recent rate decrease as profit-taking was prompted by Powell’s cautious tone. Earlier this week, gold jumped beyond $3,700 and reached $3,707.42 following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a 25 basis point rate decrease to 4.25%. But the impetus soon waned, and prices dropped back to $3,627, a $80 decline from the new all-time high. As traders locked in profits after the rally driven by dovish predictions, there was a sudden fall but buyers returned on Friday pushing the price $60 higher. Yesterday buyers continued to push and XAU reached another record high at $3,843 before retreating yesterday.
USD/JPY Continues Trading in the Range
Foreign exchange markets saw sharp swings. Early in the week, U.S. yield differentials and Japanese capital outflows pushed the dollar above ¥150, but disappointing U.S. jobs data triggered profit-taking, causing the USD/JPY to slide by four yen from its peak. The move underscored persistent volatility as traders weighed Japan’s intervention risks against evolving Fed expectations.
USD/JPY – Weekly Chart
Cryptocurrency Update
Bitcoin Returns Above $110K
Cryptocurrencies remained highly active over the summer. Bitcoin (BTC) climbed to fresh highs of $123,000 and $124,000 in July and August, supported by institutional inflows and technical strength. However, remarks from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruling out U.S. increases to BTC reserves triggered a steep pullback, sending the coin down to $113,000 before recovering above $116,000 last week, however sellers returned and sent BTC below $110,000, breaking the 20 weekly SMA (gray) as well.
BTC/USD – Weekly chart
Ethereum Returns Above $4,o00 Again
Ethereum (ETH) has been similarly strong, surging toward $4,800, its highest since 2021 and near its all-time peak of $4,860. Despite a dip last week, ETH found support at the 20-day SMA, with retail enthusiasm and renewed institutional participation driving fresh upside momentum. However buying resumed and on Sunday ETH/USD printed another record at $4,941 but we saw a retreat which sent ETH below $4,000 yesterday.
ETH/USD – Weekly Chart
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Skerdian Meta
Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst.
Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.
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