Weekly Gold Price Forecast: Safe-Haven Flows Keep XAU on Course Toward $4,000+
Gold remains on an upward long-term trajectory, driven by persistent safe-haven demand and strong central-bank buying, even as short-term...
Quick overview
- Gold is on a long-term upward trajectory due to strong safe-haven demand and central-bank buying, despite short-term volatility following the Fed's rate cut.
- The recent Fed rate cut led to a rally in gold prices, which briefly reached a record high before a profit-taking dip.
- Investor confidence in gold is reflected in a significant spike in ETF inflows, the strongest in three years, amid ongoing market anxiety.
- Central-bank accumulation and geopolitical risks continue to support gold's demand, with analysts predicting a gradual push toward the $4,000 mark.
Live GOLD Chart
Gold remains on an upward long-term trajectory, driven by persistent safe-haven demand and strong central-bank buying, even as short-term volatility persists after the Fed’s recent rate cut.
Fed Cut Sparks Rally, Then a Profit-Taking Dip
Gold’s rally accelerated after the Federal Reserve trimmed rates by 25 basis points to 4.25% in September. Prices initially climbed above $3,700, only to see a swift pullback to $3,627 as traders took profits. However, renewed buying momentum quickly returned, briefly lifting prices to a fresh record high of $3,896 last week.
A key driver behind this surge was the **spike in gold ETF inflows—the strongest in three years—**signaling revived investor confidence in bullion’s staying power.
Market Anxiety Fuels Safe-Haven Demand
Periods of heightened political uncertainty, such as the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, typically push investors toward safe-haven assets like gold. Even with temporary pullbacks, demand remains firm as nervous investors seek shelter from market volatility and policy gridlock.
Data Delays and Dovish Signals
The NFP jobs report and U.S. unemployment figures were delayed due to the shutdown, leaving traders to lean on the ADP employment data, which showed a -31K decline in September. This soft print supported a dovish Fed outlook, buoying both gold and equities.
XAU Chart Daily – The Upside Momentum Has Exploded Since August
Central-Bank Buying Anchors the Long-Term Uptrend
Beyond short-term fluctuations, central-bank accumulation remains a powerful tailwind. China has steadily raised its gold reserves to 8.5% of total holdings, still well below the global average of ~20%, leaving room for further stockpiling.
Ongoing geopolitical risks, slowing global growth, and divergent monetary policies—with the Fed easing while the ECB holds steady—continue to underpin structural demand for gold. Analysts also point to a softer U.S. dollar outlook as another supportive factor for bullion’s climb.
Looking Ahead: Key Data on Deck
This week’s economic calendar is loaded with central bank updates, labor market data, and inflation signals. Markets will likely remain sensitive to any surprises in wage growth or employment figures, which could sway expectations for future rate moves and set the tone for October trading.
Wednesday
- RBNZ & NBP Policy Announcements: Investors will watch for any policy shifts or guidance on inflation and growth.
- FOMC Minutes (September): Expected to shed light on the Fed’s tone regarding future rate decisions.
Thursday
- ECB Minutes (September): Insights into the central bank’s stance on inflation risks and monetary tightening.
- US Weekly Jobless Claims: (TBC) A key gauge of labor market strength ahead of Friday’s payrolls report.
Friday
Average Hourly Earnings (m/m):
- Forecast: 0.3% | Previous: 0.3% – Markets will assess wage growth’s impact on inflation expectations.
US Non-Farm Employment Change:
- Forecast: 52K | Previous: 22K – A critical indicator of labor market momentum.
US Unemployment Rate: Tentative release – closely watched for signs of labor market cooling or resilience.
- US University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Prelim, October): A barometer for household confidence and inflation expectations.
Conclusion: Despite recent volatility, gold’s structural drivers remain intact: robust central-bank purchases, safe-haven inflows, and a weaker dollar backdrop all reinforce the case for a gradual push toward the $4,000 mark.
Gold Live Chart
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