Gold Price Prediction: Tariff Turmoil and India’s Festive Season to Further Fuel Gold’s Rally
The gold's recent increase coincided with investors running for cover as a result of shifting monetary policy signals and escalating trade..
Quick overview
- The Dow's pullback coincided with a surge in gold prices as investors sought safety amid U.S.–China trade tensions.
- Gold prices rallied following the Federal Reserve's rate cut, reaching over $4,000 again after a brief correction.
- Demand for gold is expected to rise during India's festive season and due to ongoing geopolitical events.
- Central bank purchases continue to support gold's long-term strength, with analysts predicting a bullish trend despite short-term volatility.
Live GOLD Chart
The gold’s recent increase coincided with investors running for cover as a result of shifting monetary policy signals and escalating trade tensions between the US and China.
Fed Cut Triggers a Further Gold Upside
Gold prices experienced a rollercoaster ride last week following the Federal Reserve’s 25-basis-point rate cut, which lowered the benchmark rate to 4.25%. The move initially sparked a sharp rally, propelling prices to $4,059 on Wednesday before profit-taking led to a temporary retreat to $3,944.80. Despite the short-term correction, the broader uptrend remains intact as investors continue to favor gold in an environment of slower growth and policy uncertainty.
XAU Chart Daily – The Upside Momentum Has Exploded Since August
Tariff Shock Reignites Safe-Haven Demand
The bullish momentum returned swiftly on Friday after President Donald Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese imports effective November 1, 2025. The announcement triggered a broad selloff across U.S. equities and cryptocurrencies, pushing investors back toward traditional safe-haven assets. Gold prices once again surged above the $4,000 mark, reaffirming their role as a hedge against economic and geopolitical instability.
Indian Festive Season
XAU demand will increase further throughout India’s holiday season and global political and geopolitical events, especially the US funding bill’s passing and attempts to reopen diplomatic negotiations to end the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. These elements are probably going to influence gold price patterns in the upcoming month.
Central Banks Provide Structural Support
In the background, steady central bank buying continues to anchor gold’s long-term strength. China has increased its gold reserves to 8.5% of total holdings—still far below the global average of around 20%—leaving room for additional accumulation. The steady purchases by central banks, particularly in Asia and the Middle East, underline growing efforts to diversify away from U.S. dollar reserves amid rising geopolitical uncertainty.
Outlook: Uptrend Intact Despite Volatility
Short-term pullbacks are likely as traders take profits after recent gains, but the macro backdrop remains strongly supportive. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, the U.S. government shutdown, and a mixed global economic outlook continue to boost demand for gold. With central banks maintaining a firm bid and the Fed signaling a more accommodative stance, analysts see the long-term trend for bullion pointing higher—potentially setting the stage for another record-breaking run before year-end.
Conclusion: Gold’s resilience highlights a market increasingly driven by fear and uncertainty. Between the Fed’s policy pivot, renewed trade frictions, and central bank accumulation, the metal’s long-term uptrend remains robust. Unless trade tensions ease dramatically or global growth rebounds, gold is likely to remain a key refuge for investors navigating turbulent markets.
Gold Live Chart
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