Anglo American Lifts Iron Ore Outlook as Copper Falls, JSE: AGL Share Price Eyes R775
Anglo American’s Q3 results highlight restructuring amid mixed output trends. The mining group’s latest results reveal resilience in key...
Quick overview
- Anglo American's Q3 results show a 9% year-to-date drop in copper production, but the company maintains its full-year guidance for the metal.
- The mining group raised its iron ore output forecast, reflecting confidence in operational recovery despite mixed production trends.
- Significant corporate activity includes a planned merger with Teck Resources and a complete exit from platinum group metals, signaling a strategic pivot towards copper.
- Despite short-term production challenges, Anglo American's operational strength and market positioning suggest a potential recovery heading into 2026.
Anglo American’s Q3 results highlight restructuring amid mixed output trends. The mining group’s latest results reveal resilience in key operations despite uneven production and an ambitious shift toward copper and iron ore.
Production Results Show Diverging Trends
Anglo American plc (JSE: AGL) released its third-quarter production report for the period ending 30 September 2025, revealing a 9% year-to-date drop in copper production but maintaining its full-year guidance for the transition metal. The miner also raised its forecast for iron ore output, signaling confidence in operational recovery at key assets.
Overall, the quarter reflected mixed performance—with strong gains in manganese and diamond production, while iron ore and coal output fell sharply. The company continues to navigate portfolio restructuring, which has added pressure on near-term volumes but supports long-term strategic alignment.
CEO Duncan Wanblad emphasized that Anglo delivered a “solid quarter” across copper and iron ore, noting the company’s operational strength and progress toward its 2025 goals. He pointed to higher grades and performance at Quellaveco and Los Bronces, which offset weaker production at Collahuasi—expected to recover by the end of 2026. In iron ore, both Kumba and Minas-Rio operations performed well, with the latter prompting a raised 2025 guidance to 23–25 million tons after a successful pipeline inspection in Brazil.
Strategic Shifts and Merger Momentum
The quarter also marked significant corporate activity. In September, Anglo announced a planned merger with Canada’s Teck Resources, aiming to form a copper-focused global mining powerhouse. The move underscores the group’s strategic pivot toward energy transition metals, positioning it to capture rising demand for copper in the clean energy economy.
At the same time, Anglo finalized its demerger from Valterra Platinum, selling its remaining 19.9% stake for $2.5 billion (R44.1 billion). The sale marks the company’s complete exit from platinum group metals, a sector it dominated for decades. While the divestment briefly weighed on Anglo’s share price, Valterra’s independent debut has been met with investor optimism, suggesting confidence in the separate entities’ futures.
Copper, Iron, and Market Outlook
In the July–September period, Anglo produced 183,500 metric tons of copper, slightly above last year’s 181,000 tons, though year-to-date output fell to 526,000 tons from 575,000 tons. Despite that, the company remains on track to meet its annual copper guidance of 690,000–750,000 tons, while iron ore guidance was lifted to 58–62 million tons from 57–61 million previously, thanks to Minas-Rio’s improved performance.
These adjustments reflect Anglo’s confidence in its diversified portfolio and the resilience of its operations amid ongoing market volatility and softening commodity prices.
Stock Technical Outlook: Momentum Turning Upward
Technically, Anglo American’s share price appears to be breaking out of a two-year downtrend. On the monthly chart, the stock found strong support around R400, rebounding off the 100 SMA (green) and pushing decisively above the 50 SMA (yellow)—a move that signals a potential bullish reversal.
ANGJ Chart Monthly – Resuming the Uptrend
On the weekly chart, a breakout above the 200 SMA (purple) and the descending trend line from 2023 further confirm the trend change. Despite muted price action following the Q3 results, the broader technical structure suggests renewed buying momentum and a possible continuation higher in the months ahead.
ANGJ Chart Weekly – The 2024 High SMA Has Been Broken
Q3 2025 Production Overview
Mixed output trends show strength in manganese and diamonds, but weakness in coal and iron ore.
Simplified Portfolio Performance
Copper:
- Q3 2025: 184 kt, up 1% from 181 kt in Q3 2024
- YTD 2025: 526 kt, down 9% from 575 kt last year
- Slight quarterly recovery but weaker year-to-date output due to operational challenges.
Iron Ore:
- Q3 2025: 14.3 Mt, down 9% from 15.7 Mt
- YTD 2025: 45.7 Mt, down 2%
- Lower production driven by logistics bottlenecks and maintenance work.
Manganese Ore:
- Q3 2025: 973 kt, up 140% from 406 kt
- YTD 2025: 2,067 kt, up 34%
- Strong rebound reflecting improved mine productivity and higher demand.
- Exiting Businesses
Diamonds:
- Q3 2025: 7.7 Mct, up 38% from 5.6 Mct
- YTD 2025: 17.9 Mct, down 5%
- Quarterly boost from improved grades, though annual output remains softer.
Steelmaking Coal:
- Q3 2025: 1.9 Mt, down 54% from 4.1 Mt
- YTD 2025: 6.2 Mt, down 49%
- Sharp decline amid divestment process and weaker export volumes.
Nickel:
- Q3 2025: 10.1 kt, up 2%
- YTD 2025: 29.4 kt, unchanged
- Stable performance, with modest gains offset by maintenance downtime.
Conclusion: Transformation Amid Transition
Anglo American’s Q3 results highlight a company in strategic transformation—balancing short-term production declines against long-term value creation through portfolio realignment and copper expansion. While short-term headwinds persist, particularly in coal and platinum exits, Anglo’s operational discipline, stronger balance sheet, and renewed market positioning hint at a measured recovery and structural turnaround heading into 2026.
- Check out our free forex signals
- Follow the top economic events on FX Leaders economic calendar
- Trade better, discover more Forex Trading Strategies
- Open a FREE Trading Account
Save