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Greenback Flags As Stimulus Debate Rages On

Posted Tuesday, December 29, 2020 by
Shain Vernier • 2 min read

The debate over COVID-19 stimulus rages on in Congress as the Greenback continues to slide. At this hour, Senate Republicans are considering whether or not to schedule a vote regarding $2000 individual stimulus payments. The fresh uncertainty comes on the heels of the House of Representatives passing a new bill upgrading $600 personal payments to $2000.

All in all, the markets are flat as the stimulus saga continues to unfold. At the midway point of the Wall Street session, the DJIA DOW (-11), S&P 500 SPX (+2), and NASDAQ (-40) are hovering near scratch. By far, the big loser today has been the Greenback. Dollar values are off across the majors, as evidenced by the USD Index falling about 0.5% on the session.

On the economic calendar, not much was scheduled for today. However, U.S. real estate got some good news, with release of the 20-city S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index (YoY, Oct.). The metric came in at a surprising 7.9%, well above industry projections (6.9%). So, while the number of home sales may be lagging, prices are up big. If the U.S. Federal Reserve is looking for evidence of QE having boosted inflation, 14-year high U.S. home prices are a good place to start.

For the Greenback, there isn’t much good news on the horizon. Barring the FED turning hawkish in January, the USD is positioned to slip at least through the first half of 2021.

USD/CHF Plunges As Greenback Continues To Fade

The USD/CHF has extended its losing ways after a brief bullish bounce last week. Rates are back at yearly lows as New Year’s Day approaches. 

USD/CHF, Daily Chart
USD/CHF, Daily Chart

Bottom Line: For the rest of the week, I’ll be watching the 0.8800 big-round-number closely in the USD/CHF. If the Greenback continues to stumble, a test of this area and a long trade setup may come to pass. 

Until elected, I’ll have buy orders in the queue from 0.8807. With an initial stop loss at 0.8767, this trade produces 40 pips on a standard 1:1 risk vs reward ratio.

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