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Cardano (ADA) Price Prediction for 2021: The Uptrend Seems Sustainable This Time

Published on Tue, March 16, 2021 by
Skerdian Meta • 7 min read

Last Update: January 11th, 2022


Cardano (ADA) – Forecast Summary

ADA Forecast: H2 2021
Price: $3.00 – $4.00
Price drivers: Technical indicators, Crypto market sentiment, Alonzo hard fork, Crypto crackdown
ADA Forecast: 1 Year
Price: $8 – $10
Price drivers: Release of Voltaire, ERC20 Token Converter, Crypto crackdown, Technical charts
ADA Forecast: 3 Years
Price: $20 – $25
Price drivers: Cardano evolving, Crypto market sentiment, International legislation


Read the latest Update at the ADA Price Forecast

ADA, which is the native currency of the blockchain Cardano has become one of the top cryptocurrencies in terms of market capitalization, after the surge higher in the first four and a half months of 2021 and the resilience in recent months. Cardano has been affected by the crackdown on cryptos from the governments and central banks, but during August and September, it showed more resilience than the majority of the market, although it has been falling behind Bitcoin and Ethereum in October. This digital currency surged more than 3,100% since November 2020, reaching $3.10 in September 2021. Cardano kept making new highs as it moved pretty close to $2.50 by the middle of May, while most of the cryptocurrency market was either stagnating or in the middle of a deep correction lower, which was long overdue by the way.

This showed an increasing demand for the ADA coin. The crash in the crypto market eventually caught up with ADA/USD, but it held much better than a lot of other main cryptos and is now back on its feet again, trading above $2.00, from a low of around $1. The improved sentiment in the crypto market, together with some interesting updates which are coming up for Cardano, make it very attractive in the crypto world.

Cardano was launched in 2017, and initially, it traded pretty low, at around $ 0.05 cents, until early November that year, when the “Gold Rush” for cryptocurrencies sent them surging higher. The digital currencies, which were priced very low, like ADA, absolutely surged, and ADA/USD increased to 1.40, as shown on my crypto broker. But then the surge ended, and Cardano ended up back where it started at 0.001. It remained in that range until November 2020 when the bullish move started and it pushed above $2.

The crash came later than in other cryptocurrencies for ADA, sending it just above $1. Although Cardano has been crawling higher since the last week of June, claiming back about a third of the losses and is up over 2,300% year-to-date (YTD), which again shows that the demand is increasing for Cardano. On the fundamental side, Cardano seems solid as well, with it’s energy-efficient token minting in a time when China has opened a war on Bitcoin mining for energy consumption issues apparently, the release of the Alozo hard fork which has attracted $30 billion in ADA coin staking.     


Current ADA Price: $

Recent Changes in the Cardano ADA Price

Period Change ($) Change %
1 Month +0.0.27 -13%
3 Months +0.96 +87%
6 Months +1.08 +127%
1 Year +1.31 +231%
Since 2017  +0.91 +102%

Factors Affecting Cardano ADA/USD

Cardano (ADA) gets affected by the sentiment in the crypto market, like all other digital currencies, which has been keeping them really bullish at the end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021. Comments on digital currencies from major investors and business people like Elon Musk drive the sentiment in this market. Although Cardano is building up its own world and it is affecting its own sentiment as well. ADA ignored such comments earlier in May this year, as it kept marching higher, while the rest of the market stagnated. But, it retreated lower after China opened the war on Bitcoin and the crypto market in general. It is still performing better than most of the market though. One of the reasons for this is the new Cardano upgrades, such as the Alonzo Hard Fork in Q2 of 2021, after the Mary Hard fork which went live on March 1. They have been attracting attention and funds, which have been keeping ADA/USD better supported than most other major cryptos since the crash in May and now it seems like the larger bullish trend has resumed again. 

Cardano Live Chart


Cardano ADA Price Prediction for the Next 5 Years

The Cardano blockchain network was founded by a leading team of scientists and engineers, which makes it stand out from the crowd, as it leads the crypto market in terms of new developments. That’s one of the reasons for the continuing increased bullish momentum, while other cryptos are making smaller gains. It has now become the third-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization at more than $38 billion, following [[Bitcoin]] and [[Ethereum]] . This cryptocurrency is based on peer-review research, which attempts to bring it closer to the public, by making it more adaptable. As a result, it undergoes small changes constantly. So, the crypto market retraced lower in the middle of May, but ADA held well and is recuperating the losses pretty fast now, as it heads for the May highs.

The Launch of “Alonzo” Hard Fork

ADA coin runs on the Cardano blockchain. It finally launched the “Mary” hard fork upgrade on March 1, which was the date for the Goguen era to start. That was delayed, but Charles Hoskinson announced that the full release of Goguen will now take place in August 2021. The Goguen era will be implemented in three phases, the Allegra and Mary phases, and now the Alonzo hard fork. When the Goguen era is over, Cardano will continue to its next phases – Basho and Voltaire.

The Goguen era updates will implement smart contracts into the DeFi system. This will also enable building decentralized applications (DApps) on Cardano and will make the network more scalable and sustainable.  The Alonzo hard fork update is also divided into three phases, the first testnet phase which is Alonzo Blue was launched on 27 May. Alonzo White is expected to go live in early July, while Alonzo Purple is the full release onto the mainnet in August, which will end the Goguen era. Now the Cardano Testnet supports smart contracts with the rollout of Alonzo update.

More Developments for Cardano

Cardano is a blockchain-based platform that doesn’t necessary need a wallet, competing against other similar platforms, like Ethereum and EOS, but Frederik Gregaard, the CEO of the Cardano Foundation, made the following statement recently:

“I think the biggest competitors are really the largest technology companies that are around today, the large tech platforms such as Google, Amazon, Tencent, Alibaba, those kinds of players.”

He aims at bringing all these kinds of currencies together, in order to offer the full range of services to customers, rather than them competing against one another and missing the boat that the big companies will take. Charles Hoskinson also mentioned that they are aiming at attracting the big companies to their blockchain.

Recently, Cardano’s founder, Charles Hoskinson, added that Cardano has been in negotiations with potential partners and many important firms in the industry, like Prime Trust, Celsius, Fireblocks etc.

Cardano’s team is working on a number of developments in all areas, one of which is Volatire. Voltaire’s aim, which involves the governance area of blockchain, is to evolve Cardano into an outstanding innovation management platform. Cardano will release Goguen as well – the initial feature of the metadata transactions is already out. The next phase of the transformation from a single-asset system to a multi-asset one will come early next year, enabling users to create their own tokens. Besides that, the team is also developing the ERC20 Token Converter feature, which will make it easy to migrate from Ethereum to Cardano. Voltaire ensured accountability for funding on Cardano. With Voltaire, the blockchain’s governance era, will eventually evolve Cardano into one of the best innovation management platforms on the market, as thousands of people will participate in the blockchain’s accountability process.

Better Demand for ADA/USD After the Crash

The sentiment for Cardano used to be pretty similar to the sentiment in the crypto market. But, during the last week of February they seem to be diverging pretty fast. The crypto market went through one of the most bearish weeks in recent months, while Cardano continued to surge higher. A similar price action took place from April until May, when a number of cryptocurrencies were surging higher, with Cardano leading the way, as it surged from below $1 at the end of April up to $2.47 by the middle of May.

The crash was quite large, as it was for most cryptos, but even after that ADA/USD was less bearish than the other digital currencies. It tried to make higher highs in June after the crash and after the second wage of selling in June, the price action has been bullish for about a month now.  The planned upgrades and developments have a positive impact on the native token ADA, as well as in the sentiment from traders, so by the middle of August Cardano is trading at $2.20, which means gaining 120% in less than a month. That confirms the positive sentiment and the higher demand for ADA coins. 

Cardano ADA Technical Analysis – Is the 20 SMA going to Catch Up Soon? 

ADA/USD started life pretty low and was trading close to $0.10 for a few months, until November 2017, when the demand for cryptocurrencies sent Bitcoin shooting up to $ 20,000, while ADA rose to $1.40. The price started coming down in January 2018, as the gold rush for cryptos ended, and by the end of that year, this cryptocurrency had lost all the gains. A support area formed around $0.02 at the bottom, while moving averages were providing resistance at the top, until July when buyers pushed the price to $0.1550, as the demand for cryptocurrencies returned.  The price came back down eventually, however, ADA didn’t give back nearly all of its gains, as did some other cryptos. Instead, the retrace down stopped at the 50 SMA (yellow), which seems to have turned from resistance into support. Although, now after the surge it will take some time for the moving averages to catch up with the price, especially after the surge of the last week, which took the price to $ 1.55.  


ADA/USD made new highs this time 

On the monthly chart, the picture is even simpler. This picture shows a big U with the big surge at the end of 2017 and the second surge still underway, which has taken out 2017 highs now. In this time-frame, the 20 SMA (gray) turned into support at the end of 2020 and the price bounced hard off that moving average. In February 2021 we saw a big bullish candlestick, which took Cardano from $0.33 to nearly $1.50 which turned into resistance for several months. Now the price has broken out to the upside, so the bullish trend is back on.

It will take time for the 20 SMA to catch up now

On the daily chart, Cardano was finding support on the 50 SMA (yellow) during the bullish momentum of the first several months of 2021. This moving average was broken as support after the big reversal in May, although the 100 SMA (green) took its place. These moving averages turned into resistance during the bearish momentum which laster until late July, but the 200 SMA (purple) caught up and the ADA/USD bounced off that moving average, now heading for the all time highs just below $2.50, which I think will be overtaken soon.

The 50 SMA has turned into resistance now on the daily chart


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About the author

Skerdian Meta // Lead Analyst
Skerdian Meta Lead Analyst. Skerdian is a professional Forex trader and a market analyst. He has been actively engaged in market analysis for the past 11 years. Before becoming our head analyst, Skerdian served as a trader and market analyst in Saxo Bank's local branch, Aksioner. Skerdian specialized in experimenting with developing models and hands-on trading. Skerdian has a masters degree in finance and investment.