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Oi mate, what’s your plan?

Posted Monday, September 12, 2016 by
Skerdian Meta • 2 min read

I bet the Brexit mob must be singing oi bloody oi. The economic data from the UK was horrible after the vote to leave the EU, but the economic indicators have bounced back in August and so far in September, so there´s a good reason for them to by cheerful. That´s indeed a big relief after finding yourself in a sinking ship in the first few weeks following the referendum. 

But, not so fast mate. Brexit hasn´t even begun yet. Even the negotiation haven´t started yet. British PM May has repeated that Brexit means Brexit, there´s no turning back, but she won´t show the EU/UK negotiation cards beforehand. We know most of the cards she (UK) holds such as the British financial industry, but we´ll have to wait and see how she plays them. Does she have a good poker face?

On the other hand, the EU can´t afford to be that generous with the UK. If Britain gets too good a deal, then other members states might get lured into leaving too. UK officials have started trade negotiations with other major global economies such as China and India but it´s the EU the UK does most of the business with and the EU knows that, so there´s a good chance the EU might play hard to get.

It´s like that pretty girl in school who´s aware of her charms, she might like you but you know you will end the school year single. In the case of Brexit, UK will not end up with what the Brexit leaders led the public to believe. Not because the EU is evil, but it will try to make an example of the UK in order to scare others from leaving.

The main reason the Brits voted out was immigration. But, I´m afraid the free movement between the EU and UK will remain unchanged if the UK wants to still have access to the single market, which it does. Switzerland and Norway have to pay a hefty sum to get access to this single European market, besides allowing free movement, so that seems the most likely outcome for the UK as well.  

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