Once every few months, FOMC announcements fall right in the middle of the weekly WTI crude oil inventory cycle. Volatilities typically spike in crude following actions by the FED, so it is a good idea to be extra vigilant during these periods.

Take note of the following times for the next 24 hours:

• API Crude Oil Stock                              2:30 PM EST  (Today)

• EIA Crude Oil Stocks                          10:30 PM EST  (Tomorrow)

• FED Interest Rate Announcement        2:00 PM EST  (Tomorrow)

A Look At WTI Crude

WTI crude futures are exhibiting heavy volumes, with the roll from the October to November contract being complete. Thus far, November WTI crude has been very active trading over 500,000 contracts.

November WTI Crude Oil Futures, Daily Chart

Currently, we are seeing consolidation in the daily ranges of November WTI crude between $50.00 and $51.00. As this market continues to tighten, there are a few technicals to look at:

• 38% retracement of  last week’s range at $49.62

• Monday’s low of $49.68 serves a proximity test of the 38% level

• Monday closed as a Doji

• Clustering of price around psyche level of $50.00

The bulls took control of this market last week, running price from $47.51 to $50.88. With trade still above the 38% retracement, I maintain a bullish bias.

Bottom Line: With the pending data releases, anything can happen in this market. Intraday price action is bearish, possibly bringing our 38% Fibonacci level into play late in the session. If we see a break and close under 38%, then the market may be poised to put in a formidable correction after last week’s rally.